Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4)21.48.4−13.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3)15.91.0−14.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)15.817.4+1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)13.736.1+22.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Xavier WorthyWR KCFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)10.622.9+12.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Calvin RidleyWR TENFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)12.616.8+4.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Jakobi MeyersWR LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)14.56.1−8.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Jerry JeudyWR CLEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3)15.74.0−11.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)7.85.3−2.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3)13.89.0−4.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W15A.J. BrownWR PHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)16.025.0+9.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.5)10.84.9−5.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.4)14.05.1−8.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)15.314.6−0.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3)13.528.1+14.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)13.512.9−0.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W13CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)18.15.9−12.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5)10.53.3−7.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W12Cooper KuppWR LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)13.520.0+6.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W12Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)12.220.7+8.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected +0.3)11.96.1−5.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6)13.29.4−3.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4)12.79.8−2.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W10Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3)13.311.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W10Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.7)17.79.8−7.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W10DeVonta SmithWR PHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)13.53.4−10.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W10Jalen NailorWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)5.51.4−4.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W10Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)9.74.9−4.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W9A.J. BrownWR PHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)18.15.6−12.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.6)20.321.6+1.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Jalen NailorWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)7.07.7+0.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)11.016.1+5.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)15.229.7+14.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Romeo DoubsWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)11.810.2−1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Dontayvion WicksWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)8.33.1−5.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Tank DellWR HOUFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)11.513.5+2.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5)12.47.5−4.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W7Kendrick BourneWR NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)3.82.4−1.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)17.913.7−4.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3)15.813.7−2.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Keenan AllenWR CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3)10.54.9−5.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)17.020.8+3.8❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse