Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Mike EvansWR TBFade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3)19.017.9−1.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)12.413.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)10.419.4+9.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)13.314.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)25.519.2−6.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Davante AdamsWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.4)16.119.8+3.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)16.915.3−1.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)16.214.7−1.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Davante AdamsWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5)15.042.8+27.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3)15.05.6−9.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W14CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5)16.621.4+4.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W14Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)18.845.1+26.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W13Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.7)13.319.9+6.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W13Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4)13.115.3+2.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W12Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.4)16.64.7−11.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W12Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)19.612.2−7.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Davante AdamsWR NYJFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)13.713.2−0.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5)20.138.7+18.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)14.59.1−5.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)12.522.6+10.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)14.711.9−2.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.3)10.69.8−0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W10A.J. BrownWR PHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)14.815.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Darnell MooneyWR ATLBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)13.919.8+5.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W9DeVonta SmithWR PHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)15.118.7+3.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Stefon DiggsWR HOUFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.4)14.612.7−1.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5)10.412.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3)18.28.7−9.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)6.77.9+1.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.6)13.92.3−11.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.4)10.62.1−8.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W6Keenan AllenWR CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)10.721.1+10.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W6Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)11.117.7+6.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.715.2−1.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W5CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.111.4−8.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3)13.28.2−5.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)16.323.1+6.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5)15.47.0−8.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.26.6−4.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W2CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3)23.919.0−4.9✅Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse