Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 24.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 21.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 15.7 | 2.8 | −12.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 18.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.7) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 10.7 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 22.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse