Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 17.9 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 24.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 21.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 21.4 | 25.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 13.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 21.4 | 8.4 | −13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | 15.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 1.0 | −14.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 19.4 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 16.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 15.7 | 2.8 | −12.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 13.3 | 14.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 25.5 | 19.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 17.6 | 24.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 36.1 | +22.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 20.9 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 16.8 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 14.5 | 6.1 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 15.6 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 15.7 | 4.0 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 14.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 5.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 13.2 | 20.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 15.0 | 42.8 | +27.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 5.6 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 18.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 9.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 25.0 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 14.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 15.4 | 13.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 16.3 | 14.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 6.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 13.3 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | 12.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 15.0 | 14.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 16.6 | 21.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 8.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 18.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.7) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.7) | 18.5 | 21.9 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 23.3 | 15.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 17.1 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 5.9 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.7) | 13.3 | 19.9 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 12.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 18.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 3.3 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 15.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 4.4 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 16.3 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 16.6 | 4.7 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 19.6 | 12.2 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 11.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 16.5 | 11.2 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 20.7 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 19.6 | 24.9 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 7.8 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 13.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 10.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 18.1 | 14.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse