Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C
Play action: every call
Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.
2024 backtest
64–72–9
47.1% vs 48.1% baseline
2025 backtest
–
no graded calls
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
0–1
0.0% vs 49.6% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 29–36–2 | 44.6% | 48.1% |
| QB | 24–27–5 | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TE | 11–9–2 | 55.0% | 43.5% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 59–67–9 | 46.8% | 48.1% |
| 0.5–1 | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB MIN | Boost (Play action vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 11.5 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse