Matchup edge · RB C · WR myth · TE C
Red-zone defense: every call
Defenses that give up more points per red-zone snap boost players with big red-zone roles.
2024 backtest
–
no graded calls
2025 backtest
57–47–5
54.8% vs 50.9% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
1–0
100.0% vs 38.2% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 13–14–1 | 48.1% | 50.5% |
| RB | 38–24–4 | 61.3% | 50.8% |
| TE | 6–9 | 40.0% | 52.2% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 53–43–5 | 55.2% | 50.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 4–4 | 50.0% | 53.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 1.4 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 3.8 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.0 | 15.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 5.6 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 7.1 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 11.8 | 6.7 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 11.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 23.0 | 29.9 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 15.0 | 9.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 18.7 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 19.4 | 20.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse