Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB C · WR myth · TE C

Red-zone defense: every call

Defenses that give up more points per red-zone snap boost players with big red-zone roles.

2024 backtest

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no graded calls

2025 backtest

57–47–5

54.8% vs 50.9% baseline

Win rate 54.8% (95% 45.2%–64.0%) vs baseline 50.9%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

1–0

100.0% vs 38.2% baseline

Win rate 100.0% (95% 20.6%–100.0%) vs baseline 38.2%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR13–14–148.1%50.5%
RB38–24–461.3%50.8%
TE6–940.0%52.2%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.553–43–555.2%50.7%
0.5–14–450.0%53.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Red-zone defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Red-zone defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)21.322.7+1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.4)22.211.7−10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18George KittleTE SFFade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.87.9−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.613.5−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)6.30.0−6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)10.218.7+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)4.98.3+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kareem HuntRB KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)4.93.8−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.5)9.16.0−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected −0.3)14.11.3−12.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)15.221.9+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.7)17.414.8−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.21.4−12.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17James CookRB BUFFade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)19.18.7−10.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Red-zone defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)18.416.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.8)25.56.4−19.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.4)17.022.8+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.4)14.111.5−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)10.93.8−7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15George KittleTE SFBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.4)12.022.8+10.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Terry McLaurinWR WASBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)13.015.9+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.79.2−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Javonte WilliamsRB DALFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.4)19.215.1−4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15James CookRB BUFBoost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3)18.231.1+12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)10.35.6−4.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)10.03.6−6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.5)22.09.8−12.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Terry McLaurinWR WASFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)11.97.1−4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Red-zone defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)16.417.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)11.86.7−5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Bam KnightRB ARIFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)11.36.4−4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)18.510.8−7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)25.337.0+11.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Ashton JeantyRB LVFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)14.25.8−8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)14.411.1−3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)16.110.4−5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)7.72.0−5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.811.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)9.515.9+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Chuba HubbardRB CARBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)7.78.3+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.5)23.029.9+6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEABoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)10.813.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.6)24.055.4+31.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)18.627.5+8.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)17.216.6−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.6)15.09.8−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)15.911.4−4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.4)21.517.6−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)17.522.4+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jonathan TaylorRB INDFade (Red-zone defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)22.07.7−14.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)19.818.7−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)22.15.8−16.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Red-zone defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)18.213.5−4.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)12.310.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.4)19.532.0+12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W4James CookRB BUFBoost (Red-zone defense vs NO, expected +0.3)20.622.5+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)19.420.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)18.226.9+8.7✅Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse