Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB C · WR myth · TE C

Red-zone defense: every call

Defenses that give up more points per red-zone snap boost players with big red-zone roles.

2024 backtest

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no graded calls

2025 backtest

57–47–5

54.8% vs 50.9% baseline

Win rate 54.8% (95% 45.2%–64.0%) vs baseline 50.9%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

1–0

100.0% vs 38.2% baseline

Win rate 100.0% (95% 20.6%–100.0%) vs baseline 38.2%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR13–14–148.1%50.5%
RB38–24–461.3%50.8%
TE6–940.0%52.2%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.553–43–555.2%50.7%
0.5–14–450.0%53.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Red-zone defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Red-zone defense vs HOU, expected +0.3)12.45.9−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)18.64.8−13.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs TB, expected +0.3)7.01.0−6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Terry McLaurinWR WASBoost (Red-zone defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)12.611.3−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)20.139.9+19.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs TB, expected +0.3)17.014.2−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)15.39.3−6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.4)5.213.9+8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)7.77.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Red-zone defense vs IND, expected −0.4)23.732.6+8.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16George KittleTE SFFade (Red-zone defense vs IND, expected −0.3)14.224.5+10.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)10.00.2−9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3)9.84.4−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.5)18.116.9−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Travis EtienneRB JAXFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)15.416.6+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.74.6−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.6)24.915.7−9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.6)14.723.2+8.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.97.3−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)19.141.4+22.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Red-zone defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)11.18.6−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)6.510.5+4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)19.115.2−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)9.520.6+11.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)12.55.6−6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Terry McLaurinWR WASFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)10.222.6+12.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)10.011.2+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W12David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.4)12.56.7−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Rico DowdleRB CARBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)13.011.4−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)14.611.5−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Travis KelceTE KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)10.324.1+13.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Kareem HuntRB KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)10.613.2+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.4)18.04.0−14.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)17.619.6+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10George KittleTE SFFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.323.4+14.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)16.519.7+3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Ashton JeantyRB LVFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.5)12.715.3+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Javonte WilliamsRB DALFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)17.117.9+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)11.018.4+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)16.77.9−8.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Red-zone defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)8.19.2+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.6)19.816.7−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)23.44.8−18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)20.118.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5James CookRB BUFBoost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3)19.34.9−14.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)23.016.7−6.3❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse