Matchup edge · RB C · WR C · TE C
Screens: every call
Defenses that give up more per screen boost backs and receivers who get screen work.
2024 backtest
2–7
22.2% vs 40.4% baseline
2025 backtest
–
no graded calls
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 2–5 | 28.6% | 41.5% |
| WR | 0–2 | 0.0% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 2–7 | 22.2% | 40.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Screens vs TB, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Screens vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | 5.3 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Screens vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Screens vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | 11.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Screens vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 14.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Screens vs SF, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 31.0 | +15.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Screens vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 18.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Screens vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Screens vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 23.3 | 15.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Screens vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 4.4 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Screens vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Screens vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse