Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 14.2 | 17.7 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 20.0 | 24.5 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.2 | 4.9 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.4 | 14.0 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 22.5 | 29.4 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 8.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.3 | 9.8 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.2 | 4.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.3 | 10.9 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.1 | 20.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 16.4 | 22.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | 6.7 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.8 | 5.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | 11.9 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 10.8 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.5 | 3.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 5.3 | 9.5 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.6 | 10.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 8.2 | 10.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.2 | 3.3 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 14.8 | 21.0 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 11.9 | 24.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 7.5 | 10.6 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 13.2 | 20.3 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 12.3 | 23.7 | +11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 12.8 | 15.4 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 14.6 | 25.2 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 16.5 | 19.0 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 10.0 | 11.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 4.5 | 8.3 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.7 | 4.9 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.0 | 2.8 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 10.6 | 15.6 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 13.1 | 19.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 13.1 | 15.3 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 11.3 | 14.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 4.6 | 10.4 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 14.6 | 26.1 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 12.5 | 13.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.3 | 13.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.4 | 14.5 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 4.6 | 5.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 4.9 | 16.8 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.1 | 18.7 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 11.7 | 17.6 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 8.5 | 11.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 19.6 | 33.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.0 | 3.7 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.4 | 14.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 5.0 | 7.6 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.9 | 16.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 10.9 | 18.8 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 25.1 | 32.9 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 18.3 | 33.7 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 9.6 | 17.4 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 0.7 | 20.5 | +19.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 20.4 | 55.4 | +35.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 12.7 | 22.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 15.3 | 20.3 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.1 | 30.0 | +13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 9.9 | 18.6 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 13.6 | 24.8 | +11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 10.6 | 17.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 15.4 | 16.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | 8.0 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 2.3 | 11.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 18.1 | 22.6 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 11.4 | 18.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse