Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 14.2 | 17.7 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.8 | 7.5 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.7 | 4.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.5 | 2.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 16.4 | 8.3 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 5.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 20.0 | 24.5 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.4 | -0.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.2 | 4.9 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 14.6 | 5.9 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.0 | 8.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.4 | 14.0 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 22.5 | 29.4 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 14.2 | 12.2 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 13.6 | 7.2 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 8.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | La'Mical PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 12.3 | 12.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.1 | 2.2 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | 1.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 14.0 | 8.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.3 | 9.8 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 8.7 | 7.1 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 16.0 | 6.2 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.2 | 4.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 5.8 | 4.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.3 | 0.5 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 15.0 | 6.1 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse