Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W13Jonathan MingoWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen RoyalsWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Matthew GoldenWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Robert WoodsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Joe MixonRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Justin WatsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Braxton BerriosWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Diontae JohnsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12J.J. TaylorRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jared WayneWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tank DellWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12British BrooksRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyrod TaylorQB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.5)10.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Josh ReynoldsWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mitchell WilcoxTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11JaMycal HastyRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Antonio GibsonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brandon SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kene NwangwuRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Khalil HerbertRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irvin CharlesWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stone SmarttTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jelani WoodsTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Braelon AllenRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Javon BakerWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Arian SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.70.0−3.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Alexander MattisonRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10DJ TurnerWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Sincere McCormickRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zamir WhiteRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Justin ShorterWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Shedrick JacksonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10John ShenkerTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Chris CollierRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dylan LaubeRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ramel KeytonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Blake WatsonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler HuntleyQB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5)20.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Devontez WalkerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick VannettTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Will DisslyTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DJ CharkWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Trayveon WilliamsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jalen ReagorWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dez FitzpatrickWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ben SimsTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Brenden RiceWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jaylen JohnsonWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse