Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Adam ThielenWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Scott MillerWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sal CannellaTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)1.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jerome FordRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Calvin Austin IIIWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Lew Nichols IIIRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaleel McLaughlinRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)1.38.8+7.5voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Cedric TillmanWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brenden BatesTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dylan SampsonRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)3.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Riley NowakowskiRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Eli HeidenreichRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jamal AgnewWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Cooper RushQB ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +1.0)11.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3David SillsWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)12.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)0.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)1.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Deven ThompkinsWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dylan DrummondWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)3.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Casey WashingtonWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Savion WilliamsWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jakobie Keeney-JamesWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nate CarterRB ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.2)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Drake DabneyTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)3.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Greg DortchWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)6.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)6.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tay MartinWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zach HortonTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W17Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kalif RaymondWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)4.01.5−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Robert TonyanTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Miles SandersRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17J.K. DobbinsRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)13.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Elijah MitchellRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jermar JeffersonRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brock WrightTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dameon PierceRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyquan ThorntonWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jason BrownleeWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Nikko RemigioWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Princeton FantTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jalen CropperWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)6.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Blake WatsonRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zach HortonTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Nick VannettTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Myles GaskinRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cam AkersRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dareke YoungWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Velus Jones Jr.RB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brady RussellRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse