Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Michael BurtonRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +1.0) | 14.0 | 12.9 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Robert TonyanTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Travis HomerRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | -0.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Michael PittmanWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 3.5 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 17.9 | 15.6 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | 3.6 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 1.2 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Germie BernardWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 4.1 | 3.1 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7) | 8.0 | 1.5 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jahan DotsonWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 2.1 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | 1.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7) | 9.7 | 6.6 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2) | 10.1 | 3.8 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kaleb JohnsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | 2.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyler ConklinTE DET | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | DJ MooreWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | -0.1 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | 5.3 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 6.8 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 4.4 | 3.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Frank Gore Jr.RB BUF | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 15.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 7.0 | 6.1 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 8.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 4.7 | 1.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | 1.7 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 6.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 7.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 5.7 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 11.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 10.8 | 7.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 4.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 0.1 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Max BrosmerQB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 6.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 2.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 6.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 3.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 14.0 | 8.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 5.8 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 10.4 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 20.9 | 17.4 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 12.1 | 9.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 11.6 | 8.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 21.8 | 6.5 | −15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 7.4 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 6.5 | 1.3 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 10.1 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 24.5 | 18.0 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 1.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 5.3 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 16.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 12.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 10.8 | 8.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | 1.1 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse