Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 5.0 | 7.6 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 20.1 | 14.1 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.9 | 16.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 10.9 | 18.8 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 25.1 | 32.9 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 7.7 | 7.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 8.4 | 1.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 9.7 | 1.6 | −8.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stanley MorganWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 18.3 | 33.7 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 9.6 | 17.4 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 0.7 | 20.5 | +19.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 20.4 | 55.4 | +35.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 2.5 | 1.4 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 12.7 | 22.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 7.0 | 4.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Shedrick JacksonWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 16.0 | 7.4 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.4 | 2.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 15.3 | 20.3 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 7.1 | 0.7 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.0 | 2.2 | +1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.1 | 30.0 | +13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | 1.4 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.9 | 10.5 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 9.9 | 18.6 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 5.7 | 0.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.9 | -0.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 13.6 | 24.8 | +11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 10.6 | 17.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.7 | 2.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 15.4 | 16.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | 8.0 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 17.8 | 18.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 2.3 | 11.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 8.7 | 3.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse