Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 1.5 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 21.6 | 22.7 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 15.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 4.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 7.0 | 6.1 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 8.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 4.7 | 1.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 4.3 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | 1.7 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 6.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 13.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 7.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 3.5 | 4.4 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 3.4 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 5.7 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 11.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OladokunQB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.5) | 7.7 | 7.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 7.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 15.6 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 10.8 | 7.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | 1.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik CunninghamWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 4.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 12.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.5) | 19.0 | 19.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 0.1 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 9.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach HortonTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Max BrosmerQB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 13.9 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 13.8 | 18.6 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 14.5 | 30.9 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | 2.0 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 15 · 1,443 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse