Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W9Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)18.713.1−5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Patrick RicardRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.30.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.21.7−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)10.916.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5)23.625.6+2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Justice HillRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)8.13.5−4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Alec IngoldRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyler HuntleyQB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5)20.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)4.74.2−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Tua TagovailoaQB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.5)14.98.5−6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)9.29.3+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)15.614.2−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Dee EskridgeWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)1.60.0−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tylan WallaceWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.69.9+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)4.79.0+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.910.3+8.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Keaton MitchellRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.62.8+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)18.016.6−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)17.611.4−6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Hayden RucciTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Devontez WalkerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Malik WashingtonWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)8.37.1−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tahj WashingtonWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)1.10.1−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9LaJohntay WesterWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Ollie Gordon IIRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.71.9−1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Adam ThielenWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)3.30.0−3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Keenan AllenWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)13.08.4−4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick VannettTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Carson WentzQB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.5)14.17.8−6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)8.45.0−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Will DisslyTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tyler ConklinTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DJ CharkWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)8.94.6−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Trayveon WilliamsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)16.014.4−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.5)19.625.3+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Jalen ReagorWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dez FitzpatrickWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jalen NailorWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)6.20.0−6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan MasonRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)14.31.6−12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Tucker FiskTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)4.74.4−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)12.60.0−12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Derius DavisWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Scott MatlockRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Ben SimsTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)12.811.6−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)10.819.7+8.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Brenden RiceWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jaylen JohnsonWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)13.020.8+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.90.0−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Oronde Gadsden IITE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)9.518.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.11.5+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tre HarrisWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.88.8+6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Aaron RodgersQB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5)16.922.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Joe FlaccoQB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.5)14.426.0+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Samaje PerineRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.73.1−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)8.411.8+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Scott MillerWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.31.9+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Drew SampleTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7DK MetcalfWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)16.48.0−8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Noah FantTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)6.614.4+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jonathan WardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack MossRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)12.621.6+9.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ben SkowronekWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.50.0−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Pat FreiermuthTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.028.1+22.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)19.538.1+18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Kenny GainwellRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)11.33.5−7.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 5 of 15 · 1,443 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse