Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 11.4 | 18.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.9 | 2.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 11.8 | 0.0 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.9 | 17.7 | +14.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre'Quan SmithWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.4 | 5.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David SillsWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 4.2 | 3.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.3 | 4.8 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 12.4 | 26.1 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 3.3 | 7.1 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 12.5 | 6.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 5.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 10.0 | 3.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 5.2 | 10.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 14.7 | 14.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 4.8 | 10.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.7 | 10.6 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.9 | 12.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Willie SneadWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 10.8 | 16.5 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 12.3 | 22.8 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.7 | 7.8 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 5.6 | 12.3 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.3 | 20.7 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.7 | 5.7 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | 6.0 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 14.3 | 9.2 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 18.1 | 24.1 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.8 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 11.4 | 10.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 2.3 | 3.8 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 8.9 | 4.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.8 | 9.9 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 2.1 | 2.3 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 15.5 | 34.4 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 14.5 | 23.2 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 3.8 | 7.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 16.4 | 11.6 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 9.6 | 12.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | David WellsTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.5 | 14.7 | +13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 15.2 | 23.4 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 11.9 | 31.5 | +19.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse