Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 20.0 | 24.5 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.2 | 4.9 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.3 | 10.9 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.1 | 20.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | 11.9 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.6 | 10.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.2 | 3.3 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 12.8 | 15.4 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.7 | 4.9 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 11.3 | 14.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 11.7 | 17.6 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 19.6 | 33.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.4 | 14.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 12.7 | 22.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 18.1 | 22.6 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 12.4 | 26.1 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.7 | 10.6 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.8 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.8 | 9.9 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 8.2 | 13.1 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.8 | 4.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 5.3 | 6.7 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 7.2 | 9.8 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.8 | 4.2 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 14.8 | 28.5 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 17.9 | 29.5 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.6 | 3.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse