Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Malik DavisRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.710.3+6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Hunter LuepkeRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.35.4+3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brashard SmithRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.49.5+7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17RJ HarveyRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)13.818.6+4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)11.725.4+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)7.617.4+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Blake CorumRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.413.1+6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)19.229.5+10.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Sean TuckerRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.86.7+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)10.712.8+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Malik DavisRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)1.510.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Keaton MitchellRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)4.511.1+6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)4.48.2+3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Reggie GilliamRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)17.621.9+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.16.0+2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11TreVeyon HendersonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)17.132.3+15.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Adam PrenticeRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.02.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Ashton JeantyRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)12.715.3+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)10.819.7+8.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jaylen WarrenRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)15.419.8+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)13.331.0+17.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyle JuszczykRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.15.0+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)21.627.9+6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)18.831.1+12.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Emari DemercadoRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.910.1+7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)9.012.4+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Trey BensonRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.910.4+3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)19.720.8+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Ollie Gordon IIRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.69.8+7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Chris BrooksRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)4.75.7+1.0❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse