Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Miles SandersRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17J.K. DobbinsRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)13.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Elijah MitchellRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jermar JeffersonRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dameon PierceRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Blake WatsonRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Myles GaskinRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cam AkersRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Velus Jones Jr.RB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brady RussellRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16George HolaniRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cody SchraderRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jacardia WrightRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Avery WilliamsRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Owen WrightRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Josh WilliamsRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nate CarterRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Miles SandersRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Elijah MitchellRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jermar JeffersonRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dameon PierceRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Joe MixonRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12J.J. TaylorRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12British BrooksRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11JaMycal HastyRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Antonio GibsonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kene NwangwuRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Khalil HerbertRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Braelon AllenRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Alexander MattisonRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Sincere McCormickRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zamir WhiteRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Chris CollierRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dylan LaubeRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Blake WatsonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Trayveon WilliamsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jonathan WardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack MossRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Aaron ShampklinRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kaleb JohnsonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tahj BrooksRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Khari BlasingameRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Eric GrayRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ben VanSumerenRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tank BigsbyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dante MillerRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Patrick TaylorRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Isaac GuerendoRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cody SchraderRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4James ConnerRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Myles GaskinRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4D'Ernest JohnsonRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tony JonesRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Michael CarterRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)10.60.1−10.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4George HolaniRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jacardia WrightRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Robbie OuztsRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)5.90.0−5.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Emanuel WilsonRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)4.00.0−4.0voidBacktest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse