Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
WR	211–119–21	63.9%	63.7%
TE	104–73–33	58.8%	60.9%
RB	122–71–21	63.2%	61.8%
QB	29–39–5	42.6%	50.4%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	241–151–41	61.5%	61.4%
0.25–0.5	214–130–35	62.2%	62.4%
0.5–1	11–21–4	34.4%	50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Short week calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Robert TonyanTE PIT	Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)	0.8	0.0	−0.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Pat FreiermuthTE PIT	Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)	6.5	10.7	+4.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Sal CannellaTE CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)	1.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Darnell WashingtonTE PIT	Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)	5.0	11.7	+6.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Blake WhiteheartTE CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)	1.3	0.0	−1.3	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Brenden BatesTE CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)	8.9	11.7	+2.8	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Carsen RyanTE CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)	0.3	0.0	−0.3	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Austin HooperTE ATL	Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)	2.6	9.1	+6.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Jonnu SmithTE GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)	3.1	3.6	+0.5	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Charlie WoernerTE ATL	Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)	1.1	0.0	−1.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Kyle PittsTE ATL	Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)	8.0	1.5	−6.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL	Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)	0.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	John FitzPatrickTE GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)	1.9	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Nick MuseTE ATL	Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)	0.2	0.0	−0.2	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Josh WhyleTE GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)	1.1	0.0	−1.1	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Tucker KraftTE GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)	9.7	6.6	−3.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Luke MusgraveTE GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)	3.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Mark RedmanTE GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)	0.3	0.0	−0.3	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Drake DabneyTE GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)	3.3	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Anthony FirkserTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	2.0	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Ross DwelleyTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	1.1	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Tyler ConklinTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	0.8	0.0	−0.8	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Dawson KnoxTE BUF	Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)	6.5	8.5	+1.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Giovanni RicciTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	0.7	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Shane ZylstraTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Brock WrightTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	2.7	0.0	−2.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Dalton KincaidTE BUF	Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)	8.9	22.5	+13.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Sam LaPortaTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	10.8	17.2	+6.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Jackson HawesTE BUF	Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)	1.7	0.0	−1.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Keleki LatuTE BUF	Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)	0.9	0.0	−0.9	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Zach HortonTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	0.4	–	–	void	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Jackson MeeksTE DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)	0.5	0.0	−0.5	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse