Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Robert TonyanTE PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Pat FreiermuthTE PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)6.510.7+4.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sal CannellaTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)1.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)5.011.7+6.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake WhiteheartTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)1.30.0−1.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brenden BatesTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)8.911.7+2.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Carsen RyanTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Austin HooperTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)2.69.1+6.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jonnu SmithTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)3.13.6+0.5pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Charlie WoernerTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)8.01.5−6.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)0.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)1.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nick MuseTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)9.76.6−3.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)3.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Mark RedmanTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Drake DabneyTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)3.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyler ConklinTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)6.58.5+1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Brock WrightTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)8.922.5+13.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)10.817.2+6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)1.70.0−1.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)0.90.0−0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zach HortonTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W17Marcedes LewisTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Travis KelceTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)8.78.6−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Robert TonyanTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Evan EngramTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)7.06.1−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Josh OliverTE MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)4.71.8−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Adam TrautmanTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)3.54.4+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)2.80.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Noah GrayTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)2.51.2−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Brock WrightTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)10.87.6−3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Luke SchoonmakerTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.33.5+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Princeton FantTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ben SimsTE MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)0.91.3+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)1.14.1+3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jared WileyTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Zach HortonTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Nick VannettTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Eric SaubertTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)0.92.0+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)8.64.1−4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Davis AllenTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.65.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)8.015.0+7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Nick KallerupTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.012.3+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)1.33.2+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)10.145.6+35.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Ko KieftTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cade OttonTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Payne DurhamTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Devin CulpTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)0.77.6+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Travis KelceTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)14.015.5+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.4+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Robert TonyanTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.3+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Tanner HudsonTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)3.98.4+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)11.68.7−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Mike GesickiTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)7.43.9−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Drew SampleTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)3.02.7−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Noah FantTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)6.51.3−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.412.5+6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)10.88.6−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)2.52.7+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Luke SchoonmakerTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)2.31.1−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Princeton FantTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)3.43.3−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)1.20.0−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jared WileyTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.71.4+0.7❌Backtest ·

Page 1 of 4 · 370 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse