Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Michael BurtonRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Travis HomerRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.3-0.1−1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaylen WarrenRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)17.915.6−2.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jerome FordRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Lew Nichols IIIRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaleel McLaughlinRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)1.38.8+7.5voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dylan SampsonRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)3.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Raheim SandersRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)4.83.6−1.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)9.721.6+11.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Riley NowakowskiRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Eli HeidenreichRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)12.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brian RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.2)5.811.0+5.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.2)19.335.3+16.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris BrooksRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)4.81.4−3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3MarShawn LloydRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)10.13.8−6.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kaleb JohnsonRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)3.62.6−1.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nate CarterRB ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.2)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)6.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)19.920.9+1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.2)22.923.3+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.2)4.43.0−1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Frank Gore Jr.RB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)3.80.0−3.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W17Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17C.J. HamRB MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)16.615.3−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kareem HuntRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)4.93.8−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Miles SandersRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)9.16.0−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17J.K. DobbinsRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)13.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Elijah MitchellRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jermar JeffersonRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Adam PrenticeRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.10.3−1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Javonte WilliamsRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)19.611.4−8.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyler BadieRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)3.40.0−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Isiah PachecoRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)6.53.2−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dameon PierceRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)2.12.4+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Malik DavisRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.710.3+6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Hunter LuepkeRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.35.4+3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)5.04.0−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)25.56.4−19.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Blake WatsonRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brashard SmithRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.49.5+7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17RJ HarveyRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)13.818.6+4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Myles GaskinRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cam AkersRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Velus Jones Jr.RB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)14.111.5−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)11.725.4+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Brady RussellRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)7.617.4+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16George HolaniRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cody SchraderRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Blake CorumRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.413.1+6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacardia WrightRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Robbie OuztsRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Avery WilliamsRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Rachaad WhiteRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)9.03.6−5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyler AllgeierRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)6.11.8−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Owen WrightRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)19.229.5+10.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Sean TuckerRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.86.7+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Bucky IrvingRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)14.08.1−5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Josh WilliamsRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nate CarterRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)20.917.4−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Patrick RicardRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Samaje PerineRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)5.35.4+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Kareem HuntRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)12.19.0−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Miles SandersRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)10.712.8+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)16.710.1−6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Elijah MitchellRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jermar JeffersonRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Javonte WilliamsRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)17.117.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Isiah PachecoRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)10.65.3−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Dameon PierceRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Malik DavisRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)1.510.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Keaton MitchellRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)4.511.1+6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Chase BrownRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)20.418.3−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·

Page 1 of 5 · 442 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse