Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Adam ThielenWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Scott MillerWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4DK MetcalfWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)12.516.5+4.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Michael PittmanWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)8.63.5−5.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jerry JeudyWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.36.6+1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ben SkowronekWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)1.31.7+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Calvin Austin IIIWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Cedric TillmanWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Roman WilsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)6.316.4+10.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malachi CorleyWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaiah BondWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.11.2−0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Denzel BostonWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)9.512.9+3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Germie BernardWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)4.13.1−1.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4KC ConcepcionWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)8.811.4+2.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jamal AgnewWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Olamide ZaccheausWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)3.32.9−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3David SillsWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris BlairWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.82.0+0.2pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Bo MeltonWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)12.028.4+16.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Deven ThompkinsWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jahan DotsonWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)6.42.1−4.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Skyy MooreWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)3.16.1+3.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)15.922.6+6.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dylan DrummondWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Casey WashingtonWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Savion WilliamsWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jakobie Keeney-JamesWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Matthew GoldenWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)11.521.0+9.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3J. Michael SturdivantWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.15.2+4.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Zachariah BranchWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.71.7+0.0pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2DJ MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)13.6-0.1−13.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Greg DortchWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)6.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)18.235.2+17.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)4.811.3+6.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)13.25.3−7.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)10.36.8−3.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tay MartinWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)7.612.3+4.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W17Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kalif RaymondWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)4.01.5−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W17JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.44.6+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Courtland SuttonWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)16.68.0−8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.84.3+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)5.71.7−4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)14.67.0−7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)18.69.6−9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael BandyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)2.03.4+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.414.8−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)16.65.7−10.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17George PickensWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)19.111.8−7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jalen NailorWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)6.10.0−6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jalen TolbertWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)4.77.1+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)5.815.6+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyquan ThorntonWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jason BrownleeWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Nikko RemigioWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jalen CropperWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Marvin Mims Jr.WR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)6.34.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)11.212.5+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jonathan MingoWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)6.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Troy FranklinWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)12.45.7−6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Xavier WorthyWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)8.40.1−8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jalen RoyalsWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)5.213.9+8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cooper KuppWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.16.9−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tutu AtwellWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dareke YoungWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Rashid ShaheedWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)8.69.1+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.37.7+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)19.423.6+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)24.746.5+21.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jordan WhittingtonWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.82.9−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.77.0+5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ricky White IIIWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mike EvansWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)7.419.2+11.8❌Backtest ·

Page 1 of 7 · 663 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse