Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.5 | 4.5 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 8.7 | 10.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 9.4 | 8.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.0 | 7.7 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 16.2 | 12.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 14.0 | 21.8 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 9.7 | 1.9 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 6.6 | 2.7 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 6.0 | 2.9 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 8.9 | 19.6 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 10.5 | 19.2 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MooreWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 6.7 | 4.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 22.0 | 8.3 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.4 | 1.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 4.8 | 1.5 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 9.1 | 5.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 14.1 | 19.1 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.1 | 4.8 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 11.5 | 6.8 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.1 | 8.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 11.5 | 16.3 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 10.5 | 4.9 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 10.8 | 5.7 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 14.5 | 11.2 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse