Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W4 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 5.7 | 17.3 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 3.6 | 4.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 10.8 | 8.4 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 5.5 | 3.3 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 9.4 | 8.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 8.8 | 4.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 13.4 | 2.1 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.7 | 3.2 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
NewerPage 4 of 4 · 317 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse