Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −1.1) | 14.5 | 30.9 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 14.5 | 19.5 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −1.1) | 15.0 | 8.3 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 8.8 | 11.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −1.1) | 15.8 | 0.0 | −15.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −1.1) | 18.8 | 22.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −1.1) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 13.2 | 2.7 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason RudolphQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 12.8 | -2.0 | −14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 18.6 | 16.7 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −1.1) | 19.4 | 16.3 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 14.0 | 17.1 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −1.1) | 14.4 | 9.5 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −1.1) | 8.7 | 10.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −1.1) | 18.0 | 9.4 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Russell WilsonQB NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −1.1) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −1.1) | 15.0 | 12.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 17.4 | 4.7 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 14.4 | 16.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −1.1) | 20.3 | 42.7 | +22.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −1.1) | 16.8 | 17.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −1.1) | 19.0 | 14.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −1.1) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected −1.1) | 13.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected −1.1) | 14.2 | 1.6 | −12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1) | 10.2 | 19.0 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −1.1) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1) | 19.0 | 9.0 | −10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −1.1) | 10.9 | 3.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 10.3 | -1.4 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −1.1) | 17.8 | 23.1 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam WardQB TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −1.1) | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −1.1) | 11.6 | 5.8 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −1.1) | 18.2 | 9.3 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1) | 18.1 | 22.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cooper RushQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 11.0 | -1.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −1.1) | 16.2 | 18.5 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyrod TaylorQB NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −1.1) | 14.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −1.1) | 15.9 | 15.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −1.1) | 16.6 | 27.1 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny PickettQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner McKeeQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 10.3 | 18.9 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 7.8 | 0.8 | −7.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 12.1 | 0.5 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 21.9 | 23.0 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 10.4 | 3.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 13.3 | -0.4 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 16.9 | 15.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 18.1 | 13.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 22.1 | 24.2 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 10.6 | 12.5 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 11.4 | 18.0 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 15.8 | 23.5 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 15.4 | 10.9 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik WillisQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 11.4 | 4.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 15.8 | 28.2 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik WillisQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 16.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 14.5 | 11.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 14.8 | 10.7 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 19.8 | 31.2 | +11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 14.4 | 14.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Bailey ZappeQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 15.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse