Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W6LaJohntay WesterWR BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tetairoa McMillanWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4)14.717.9+3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4)5.06.7+1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)0.41.7+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Dalevon CampbellWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)16.312.7−3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Josh ReynoldsWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)7.00.0−7.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)5.01.8−3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)3.81.1−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Tyler JohnsonWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)12.27.8−4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Dee EskridgeWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)1.80.0−1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Brandon SmithWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Irvin CharlesWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Garrett WilsonWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)16.520.2+3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)1.20.0−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Malik WashingtonWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4)7.04.1−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Arian SmithWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)2.60.0−2.6✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 4 of 4 · 322 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse