Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −1.1) | 14.5 | 30.9 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 2.0 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.1 | 6.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 14.5 | 19.5 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 1.2 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | 3.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 7.3 | 1.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 8.4 | 4.2 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | 1.2 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 9.9 | 7.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 8.6 | 9.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 5.2 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | 7.7 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.4 | 23.6 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | 3.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 7.2 | 0.0 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | 1.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 10.7 | 4.6 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 2.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 15.0 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 7.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | 6.1 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −1.1) | 15.0 | 8.3 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 1.0 | 1.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | 4.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalen CambreWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | 7.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ricky White IIIWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 10.7 | 19.5 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 8.8 | 11.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −1.1) | 15.8 | 0.0 | −15.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | 12.3 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 4.2 | 2.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 5.3 | 3.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5) | 9.6 | 25.0 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −1.1) | 18.8 | 22.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 7.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −1.1) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 6 · 542 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse