Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −1.1)14.530.9+16.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Sam DarnoldQB SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −1.1)14.519.5+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Shedeur SandersQB CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1)8.811.2+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jalen HurtsQB PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −1.1)18.822.9+4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Brock PurdyQB SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1)14.017.1+3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Shedeur SandersQB CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −1.1)8.710.6+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1)14.416.8+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −1.1)20.342.7+22.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −1.1)16.817.7+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler ShoughQB NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1)10.219.0+8.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Drake MayeQB NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −1.1)17.823.1+5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1)18.122.3+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Bryce YoungQB CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −1.1)16.218.5+2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Justin FieldsQB NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −1.1)16.627.1+10.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Tanner McKeeQB PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG)10.318.9+8.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ)21.923.0+1.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Mac JonesQB JAXFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN)10.817.2+6.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Russell WilsonQB PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL)13.215.4+2.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Jalen HurtsQB PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR)22.124.2+2.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Bryce YoungQB CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)10.612.5+1.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Gardner MinshewQB LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)11.418.0+6.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Tua TagovailoaQB MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV)15.823.5+7.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Sam DarnoldQB MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB)14.420.5+6.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN)15.828.2+12.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W1Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI)19.831.2+11.4❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse