Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Chris ManhertzTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)0.42.6+2.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL)7.018.0+11.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)11.915.4+3.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Daniel BellingerTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)1.92.9+1.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W18E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG)0.97.7+6.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Nick VannettTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)1.87.8+6.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Jonnu SmithTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)10.511.6+1.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Tyler ConklinTE NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF)6.121.7+15.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)6.310.9+4.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Chig OkonkwoTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)8.010.9+2.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W16MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL)1.67.1+5.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT)11.113.8+2.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT)7.811.9+4.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC)3.96.0+2.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Adam TrautmanTE DENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND)3.510.0+6.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Noah GrayTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)5.410.1+4.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Kylen GransonTE INDFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN)3.17.7+4.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Nate AdkinsTE DENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND)1.48.5+7.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Tommy TrembleTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)5.47.3+1.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Grant CalcaterraTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR)6.710.6+3.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Jonnu SmithTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV)8.328.1+19.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Julian HillTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV)2.24.8+2.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W11Brock BowersTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)12.431.3+18.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Josh OliverTE MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB)2.39.0+6.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI)5.77.3+1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN)5.717.3+11.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN)3.64.3+0.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W1Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL)2.85.7+2.9❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse