Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4)13.114.5+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4)3.37.7+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)19.423.6+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)2.13.1+1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4)24.746.5+21.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Malachi CorleyWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)1.46.1+4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4)1.01.6+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4)1.77.0+5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Darius CooperWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4)0.94.9+4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W13A.J. BrownWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4)15.535.2+19.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jauan JenningsWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)9.513.9+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4)1.14.3+3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Luther Burden IIIWR CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)4.87.6+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Sterling ShepardWR TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)6.910.1+3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Isaiah HodginsWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)2.210.7+8.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)13.715.3+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)12.619.7+7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jahan DotsonWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4)4.06.3+2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4)9.420.6+11.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4)2.419.0+16.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jalin HyattWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)3.13.8+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Cedric TillmanWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)5.78.2+2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Malachi CorleyWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)1.32.9+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Savion WilliamsWR GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4)2.54.3+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Chris OlaveWR NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)15.921.4+5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)13.516.1+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Stefon DiggsWR NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4)10.813.9+3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Mack HollinsWR NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4)5.67.3+1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)2.14.6+2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Van JeffersonWR TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4)3.88.1+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Dee EskridgeWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.16.5+5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Kayshon BoutteWR NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4)10.413.5+3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)2.03.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Malik WashingtonWR MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)6.38.0+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Malachi CorleyWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)0.83.7+2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Chimere DikeWR TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4)5.216.9+11.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6George PickensWR DALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4)18.531.8+13.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jordan WhittingtonWR LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)4.35.3+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tetairoa McMillanWR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4)14.717.9+3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4)5.06.7+1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4)0.41.7+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Garrett WilsonWR NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4)16.520.2+3.7❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse