WR · BUF · 155 lines since 2023
Josh Palmer Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Josh Palmer, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 8%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 14 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 20.5 rec yds — we project 17 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 45%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 29, under 16 (45 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 25 (44 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 44 (51 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 6 (11 graded)
Our calls on him: model 30–23 · Short week 2–3 · Freezing 2–0 · Starters out on defense 0–3 · Pre-snap motion 2–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Dome team outdoors 2–5 · Middle of the field 0–1 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Explosive plays 0–3
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 48% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 55% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 16 | 58% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 33% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 15 | 54% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 20 | 53% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 44% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 52% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 42% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 28 | 47% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 25 | 45% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 58% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 26 | 56% / 49% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 18 | 62% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 27 | 63% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 14.5 | 22 | 67% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 34 | 63% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 17.5 | 23 | 61% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 38 | 53% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 53% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 32 | 50% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 50% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 26 | 47% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 40 | 58% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 40 | 60% / 52% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 65 | 71% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 33 | 39% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 49% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 41 | 58% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 34 | 55% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 29 | 52% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 31 | 50% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 44 | 57% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 42 | 54% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 29 | 48% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 25 | 40% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 32 | 44% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 65 | 60% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 44 | 50% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 44 | 50% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 60% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 44 | 59% / 51% | 113 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 44 | 59% / 51% | 113 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 54 | 60% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 38 | 38% / 50% | 133 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 38 | 38% / 49% | 133 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 38 | 45% / 49% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 38 | 45% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 30 | 33% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 30 | 34% / 55% | 77 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 21 | 40% / 49% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 21 | 41% / 49% | 66 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 13 | 30% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 13 | 32% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 30.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 31.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 58% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 10.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 23.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 30.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 29.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 34.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 32.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 31.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 43.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 43.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 40.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 31.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 31.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 30.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Over 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology