2026 season · usage through Week 2
NFL Ascension: breakout candidates for Week 3
Whose role is growing in ways that stick, how likely he is to post a top-24 (top-12 at QB and TE) week in his next three games, and which risers are still cheap because the points have not caught up. This week’s highest score: Isaiah Likely (97).
Ascension leaderboard
Highest Ascension scores: usage changes that tend to stick, ranked by the expected gain.
| Rostered | Why | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaiah LikelyNYGTEBack from absence | 97Surging | 78%top-12 | 18.1(17.1 exp) | – | Expected points 4.3 → 17.1 a game and route share 53% → 63% (est.) back from an absence; 78% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Kenneth Walker IIIKCRBBack from absence | 96Surging | 99%top-24 | 29.0(27.5 exp) | – | Expected points 10.0 → 27.5 a game and snap share 44% → 75% back from an absence; 99% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jalen CokerCARWRBack from absence | 93Surging | 75%top-24 | 24.2(18.7 exp) | – | Expected points 5.8 → 18.7 a game and route share 69% → 90% (est.) back from an absence; 75% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Matthew GoldenGBWRBack from absence | 91Surging | 51%top-24 | 12.7(16.4 exp) | – | Expected points 5.2 → 16.3 a game and route share 54% → 92% (est.) back from an absence; 51% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Dalton KincaidBUFTEBack from absence | 89Surging | 76%top-12 | 20.3(11.2 exp) | – | Expected points 6.6 → 11.2 a game and route share 35% → 89% (est.) back from an absence; 76% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Devaughn VeleNOWRBack from absence | 89Surging | 55%top-24 | 15.7(13.8 exp) | – | Expected points 4.8 → 13.7 a game and snap share 48% → 94% back from an absence; 55% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Deshaun WatsonCLEQBRole change | 88Surging | 49%top-12 | 16.9(15.3 exp) | – | Expected points 1.0 → 15.3 a game and snap share 5% → 100% in a bigger role; 49% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Ashton JeantyLVRBBack from absence | 87Surging | 98%top-24 | 21.5(26.1 exp) | – | Expected points 14.2 → 26.1 a game and snap share 72% → 78% back from an absence; 98% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Sam LaPortaDETTEBack from absence | 87Surging | 89%top-12 | 13.5(15.0 exp) | – | Expected points 8.0 → 15.0 a game and route share 81% → 90% (est.) back from an absence; 89% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Kalif RaymondCHIWRBack from absence | 87Surging | 35%top-24 | 12.7(12.3 exp) | – | Expected points 3.3 → 12.3 a game and snap share 36% → 61% back from an absence; 35% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Christian WatsonGBWRBack from absence | 86Surging | 83%top-24 | 23.4(17.1 exp) | – | Expected points 8.4 → 17.1 a game and route share 66% → 89% (est.) back from an absence; 83% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Dalton SchultzHOUTEBack from absence | 85Surging | 90%top-12 | 16.8(15.9 exp) | – | Expected points 9.5 → 15.9 a game and route share 70% → 76% (est.) back from an absence; 90% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Terrance FergusonLARTEBack from absence | 85Surging | 36%top-12 | 8.7(8.3 exp) | – | Expected points 3.3 → 8.3 a game and route share 35% → 50% (est.) back from an absence; 36% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Jahmyr GibbsDETRBBack from absence | 84Surging | 99%top-24 | 28.5(25.9 exp) | – | Expected points 16.6 → 25.9 a game and snap share 62% → 79% back from an absence; 99% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWRBack from absence | 83Surging | 97%top-24 | 32.0(26.3 exp) | – | Expected points 17.7 → 26.3 a game and snap share 80% → 93% back from an absence; 97% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Denzel BostonCLEWRRole change | 83Surging | 40%top-24 | 17.2(10.2 exp) | – | Expected points 3.5 → 10.2 a game and route share 35% → 97% (est.) in a bigger role; 40% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Pat FreiermuthPITTEBack from absence | 82Surging | 56%top-12 | 11.5(9.5 exp) | – | Expected points 5.4 → 9.5 a game and route share 50% → 79% (est.) back from an absence; 56% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Roman WilsonPITWRBack from absence | 82Surging | 23%top-24 | 6.7(8.6 exp) | – | Expected points 2.6 → 8.6 a game and snap share 33% → 67% back from an absence; 23% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 KC ConcepcionCLEWRRole change | 82Surging | 25%top-24 | 8.0(11.3 exp) | – | Expected points 3.5 → 11.3 a game and route share 35% → 72% (est.) in a bigger role; 25% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRBack from absence | 81Surging | 97%top-24 | 34.4(22.7 exp) | – | Expected points 14.9 → 22.7 a game and route share 78% → 89% (est.) back from an absence; 97% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jeremiyah LoveARIRBRole change | 81Surging | 49%top-24 | 10.3(12.5 exp) | – | Expected points 3.0 → 12.5 a game and route share 15% → 40% (est.) in a bigger role; 49% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Trey McBrideARITEBack from absence | 81Surging | 99%top-12 | 21.3(22.8 exp) | – | Expected points 16.7 → 22.8 a game back from an absence; 99% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Xavier HutchinsonHOUWRBack from absence | 80Surging | 35%top-24 | 6.5(11.9 exp) | – | Expected points 5.7 → 11.9 a game and route share 53% → 73% (est.) back from an absence; 35% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Ted Hurst IIITBWRRole change | 79Surging | 23%top-24 | 5.7(9.5 exp) | – | Expected points 3.5 → 9.5 a game and route share 35% → 79% (est.) in a bigger role; 23% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Adonai MitchellNYJWRBack from absence | 78Surging | 42%top-24 | 10.7(11.9 exp) | – | Expected points 7.3 → 11.9 a game and route share 51% → 79% (est.) back from an absence; 42% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Luther Burden IIICHIWRBack from absence | 78Surging | 43%top-24 | 7.9(11.2 exp) | – | Expected points 6.2 → 11.2 a game and snap share 39% → 65% back from an absence; 43% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Dontayvion WicksPHIWRBack from absence | 78Surging | 41%top-24 | 13.9(9.5 exp) | – | Expected points 5.2 → 9.5 a game and route share 44% → 81% (est.) back from an absence; 41% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Xavier WorthyKCWRBack from absence | 78Surging | 52%top-24 | 9.2(13.9 exp) | – | Expected points 8.2 → 14.0 a game and snap share 66% → 82% back from an absence; 52% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Caleb DouglasMIAWRRole change | 78Surging | 28%top-24 | 9.2(8.3 exp) | – | Expected points 3.5 → 8.3 a game and route share 35% → 93% (est.) in a bigger role; 28% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Drew LockSEAQBBack from absence | 77Surging | 38%top-12 | 17.1(11.2 exp) | – | Snap share 11% → 95% and expected points 0.8 → 11.2 a game back from an absence; 38% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Michael MayerLVTEBack from absence | 77Surging | 56%top-12 | 7.3(9.0 exp) | – | Expected points 6.0 → 9.0 a game and route share 55% → 81% (est.) back from an absence; 56% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 George HolaniSEARBBack from absence | 76Surging | 29%top-24 | 2.7(7.4 exp) | – | Expected points 2.0 → 7.4 a game and snap share 8% → 36% back from an absence; 29% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Stefon DiggsWASWRBack from absence | 76Surging | 69%top-24 | 18.6(15.4 exp) | – | Expected points 9.5 → 15.4 a game and route share 56% → 70% (est.) back from an absence; 69% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Tetairoa McMillanCARWRBack from absence | 76Surging | 75%top-24 | 12.8(17.5 exp) | – | Expected points 11.4 → 17.5 a game back from an absence; 75% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Carnell TateTENWRRole change | 75Surging | 24%top-24 | 6.8(7.8 exp) | – | Expected points 3.5 → 7.8 a game and route share 35% → 86% (est.) in a bigger role; 24% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Chuba HubbardCARRBBack from absence | 75Rising | 83%top-24 | 19.1(12.8 exp) | – | Expected points 8.5 → 12.8 a game and route share 40% → 71% (est.) back from an absence; 83% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Bhayshul TutenJAXRBBack from absence | 75Rising | 61%top-24 | 12.0(9.8 exp) | – | Expected points 5.3 → 9.8 a game and snap share 21% → 50% back from an absence; 61% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jadarian PriceSEARBRole change | 75Rising | 37%top-24 | 6.4(9.3 exp) | – | Expected points 3.0 → 9.3 a game and route share 15% → 40% (est.) in a bigger role; 37% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 DeVonta SmithPHIWRBack from absence | 74Rising | 78%top-24 | 18.0(14.7 exp) | – | Expected points 10.2 → 14.7 a game and route share 84% → 97% (est.) back from an absence; 78% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Isaiah WilliamsNYJWRBack from absence | 74Rising | 24%top-24 | 6.3(6.4 exp) | – | Expected points 3.7 → 6.4 a game and route share 37% → 78% (est.) back from an absence; 24% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
Next: Pre-breakout pickups · Pickups by need · Waiver wire · Usage risers
How this works
The score compares each player’s last two games with his baseline (earlier games this season, shrunk toward last season), channel by channel, and keeps only the share of each change that history says will stick for that cause and position. The weighted sum is the expected change in PPR points per game over his next three games; 50 + 50 × tanh(change ÷ scale) puts it on 0–100.
Breakout probability is a logistic model on projected opportunity, season and recent points, and the Ascension change, fitted per position on 2023–25 without looking ahead. Route share is an estimate in 2026 (no participation data yet) and is marked “est.”. Points use your scoring format; the score and probability are PPR-based.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play, snap counts and participation, ESPN rostered %Updated Tue, Oct 6, 5:42 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
What is the NFL Ascension score?
A 0–100 number for how much a player’s role is growing in ways that tend to stick. It combines his recent change in snap share, route share, target share, carry share, red-zone and goal-line share and air-yards share, each weighted by how much of that kind of change carried into later games in 2023–25 (a promotion after an injury sticks more than a target spike at steady snaps). 50 means no change; 75+ is Surging, 25 and under is Falling.
What does breakout probability mean?
The chance of at least one top-24 week (RB, WR) or top-12 week (QB, TE) in PPR scoring over his team’s next three games. It is a calibrated probability: of players we gave 30–40%, about 39% had one in our 2024–25 test.
What is a pre-breakout stash?
A player whose usage is rising (score 60+, or a 35%+ breakout chance with a score of 55+), whose points over his last two games trail what that usage usually scores by 2+ points a game, and who is rostered in under half of ESPN leagues. In testing these players broke out about as often as other risers, but their points went up afterwards (+0.8 a game) while risers who had already scored fell back (−3.8): you get them before the points arrive.
Are route shares real routes?
No. Route share is an estimate of the share of his team’s dropbacks he was on the field for. Through 2025 it comes from nflverse participation data; from 2026 we estimate it from snap share with a position-specific adjustment and his own 2025 rate (typical error about 6 points a game, 4 points over a season). Pass blockers count as being on the field.