2026 season · usage through Week 4
NFL Ascension: breakout candidates for Week 5
Whose role is growing in ways that stick, how likely he is to post a top-24 (top-12 at QB and TE) week in his next three games, and which risers are still cheap because the points have not caught up. This week’s highest score: Michael Wilson (95). 20 pre-breakout stashes.
Ascension leaderboard
Highest Ascension scores: usage changes that tend to stick, ranked by the expected gain.
| Why | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael WilsonARIWRRole change | 95Surging | 89%top-24 | 21.2(31.9 exp) | 86% | Expected points 10.0 → 31.9 a game and snap share 90% → 94% in a bigger role; 89% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Mitchell TinsleyCINWRBack from absence | 94Surging | 27%top-24 | 7.9(17.0 exp) | 0% | StashExpected points 2.8 → 17.0 a game and snap share 26% → 53% back from an absence; 27% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (7.9) trail his usage (17.0 expected). |
 Tyler HigbeeLARTERole change | 87Surging | 56%top-12 | 16.0(14.4 exp) | 2% | AddExpected points 1.4 → 14.4 a game and route share 20% → 72% (est.) in a bigger role; 56% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Ollie Gordon IIMIARBInjury opening | 87Surging | 67%top-24 | 16.3(11.7 exp) | 62% | Expected points 1.2 → 11.7 a game and snap share 13% → 70% after De'Von Achane’s injury; 67% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Tyson BagentCHIQBInjury opening | 86Surging | 37%top-12 | 8.8(17.6 exp) | 1% | StashExpected points 3.7 → 17.6 a game and snap share 14% → 100% after Caleb Williams’s injury; 37% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (8.8) trail his usage (17.6 expected). |
 CeeDee LambDALWRRole change | 85Surging | 96%top-24 | 30.8(24.5 exp) | 100% | Expected points 15.9 → 24.5 a game and route share 85% → 91% (est.) in a bigger role; 96% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Kyren WilliamsLARRBRole change | 85Surging | 99%top-24 | 29.3(24.7 exp) | 99% | Expected points 12.3 → 24.7 a game and route share 62% → 81% (est.) in a bigger role; 99% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Aaron JonesMINRBInjury opening | 85Surging | 91%top-24 | 15.5(20.0 exp) | 93% | Expected points 10.3 → 20.0 a game and route share 65% → 79% (est.) after Jordan Mason’s injury; 91% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Dohnte MeyersCINWRRole change | 85Surging | 23%top-24 | 10.6(10.0 exp) | 0% | Expected points 1.7 → 10.0 a game and route share 19% → 77% (est.) in a bigger role; 23% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Athan KaliakmanisWASQBInjury opening | 83Surging | 34%top-12 | 11.0(15.0 exp) | 0% | StashExpected points 1.0 → 15.0 a game and snap share 5% → 84% after Jayden Daniels’s injury; 34% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (11.0) trail his usage (15.0 expected). |
 Isaiah LikelyNYGTERole change | 82Surging | 78%top-12 | 8.5(14.4 exp) | 89% | Route share 63% → 84% (est.) and snap share 59% → 75% in a bigger role; 78% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 AJ BarnerSEATERole change | 81Surging | 67%top-12 | 7.1(13.8 exp) | 8% | AddExpected points 3.0 → 13.8 a game and route share 88% → 97% (est.) in a bigger role; 67% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (7.0) trail his usage (13.8 expected). |
 Carnell TateTENWRRole change | 80Surging | 56%top-24 | 16.7(16.1 exp) | 86% | Expected points 7.8 → 16.1 a game and snap share 82% → 86% in a bigger role; 56% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Colston LovelandCHITERole change | 80Surging | 75%top-12 | 9.4(13.5 exp) | 91% | Expected points 5.7 → 13.5 a game in a bigger role; 75% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Luther Burden IIICHIWRRole change | 80Surging | 53%top-24 | 15.6(18.0 exp) | 90% | Expected points 11.2 → 18.0 a game in a bigger role; 53% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Devaughn VeleNOWRRole change | 79Surging | 61%top-24 | 12.1(15.4 exp) | 65% | Expected points 13.7 → 15.4 a game in a bigger role; 61% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Tee HigginsCINWRRole change | 78Surging | 85%top-24 | 23.9(18.7 exp) | 97% | Expected points 11.4 → 18.7 a game and snap share 72% → 86% in a bigger role; 85% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Keenan AllenINDWRInjured | 78Surging | 49%top-24 | 18.3(17.5 exp) | 44% | AddExpected points 9.0 → 17.5 a game and route share 71% → 87% (est.) after missing time; 49% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 T.J. HockensonMINTEInjury opening | 78Surging | 79%top-12 | 14.0(15.4 exp) | 55% | Expected points 8.6 → 15.4 a game and snap share 68% → 84% after Justin Jefferson’s injury; 79% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Ryan FlournoyDALWRRole change | 77Surging | 38%top-24 | 6.0(15.1 exp) | 5% | AddExpected points 7.1 → 15.1 a game in a bigger role; 38% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (6.0) trail his usage (15.1 expected). |
 Laquon TreadwellINDWRInjury opening | 77Surging | 16%top-24 | 6.1(7.3 exp) | 0% | Expected points 2.9 → 7.3 a game and snap share 55% → 82% after Alec Pierce’s injury; 16% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jaylen WarrenPITRBInjury opening | 76Surging | 94%top-24 | 18.1(17.2 exp) | 91% | Expected points 12.8 → 17.2 a game and snap share 54% → 94% after Rico Dowdle’s injury; 94% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Noah FantNOTE | 75Surging | 36%top-12 | 19.3(9.9 exp) | 1% | Expected points 6.8 → 9.9 a game and route share 38% → 55% (est.); 36% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Brock BowersLVTEInjury opening | 75Surging | 96%top-12 | 24.1(21.5 exp) | 100% | Expected points 11.8 → 21.5 a game and route share 79% → 85% (est.) after Jack Bech’s injury; 96% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Keaton MitchellLACRBRole change | 75Surging | 50%top-24 | 12.5(11.3 exp) | 18% | AddExpected points 3.7 → 11.2 a game and snap share 28% → 38% in a bigger role; 50% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jalon DanielsTBQBRole change | 75Rising | 18%top-12 | 5.2(9.0 exp) | 2% | StashExpected points 1.0 → 9.0 a game and snap share 5% → 53% in a bigger role; 18% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (5.2) trail his usage (9.0 expected). |
 Darnell WashingtonPITTEDepth chart promotion | 75Rising | 40%top-12 | 10.7(8.6 exp) | 1% | Expected points 2.9 → 8.6 a game and route share 51% → 67% (est.) after a depth-chart promotion; 40% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Braelon AllenNYJRBRole change | 75Rising | 54%top-24 | 6.7(10.2 exp) | 75% | Expected points 6.6 → 10.1 a game and snap share 36% → 73% in a bigger role; 54% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Bhayshul TutenJAXRBRole change | 74Rising | 74%top-24 | 14.1(13.3 exp) | 93% | Expected points 9.8 → 13.3 a game and snap share 50% → 54% in a bigger role; 74% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Sam LaPortaDETTEUsage growth | 74Rising | 91%top-12 | 14.9(17.4 exp) | 96% | Expected points 15.0 → 17.5 a game at steady snaps (less sticky); 91% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Skyy MooreGBWRInjury opening | 74Rising | 9%top-24 | 3.5(9.9 exp) | 1% | StashExpected points 4.0 → 9.9 a game and route share 23% → 48% (est.) after Jayden Reed’s injury; 9% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (3.5) trail his usage (9.9 expected). |
 Isaac TeSlaaDETWRRole change | 74Rising | 27%top-24 | 11.6(10.2 exp) | 2% | Expected points 5.4 → 10.2 a game in a bigger role; 27% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Brycen TremayneCARWRInjury opening | 73Rising | 15%top-24 | 8.8(6.4 exp) | 2% | Expected points 0.0 → 6.4 a game and snap share 18% → 87% after Xavier Legette’s injury; 15% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Darius CooperPHIWRInjury opening | 73Rising | 16%top-24 | 9.2(8.5 exp) | 0% | Expected points 3.3 → 8.5 a game and snap share 28% → 50% after Dallas Goedert’s injury; 16% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Michael MayerLVTERole change | 73Rising | 69%top-12 | 14.2(10.4 exp) | 12% | AddExpected points 9.0 → 10.4 a game and route share 81% → 88% (est.) in a bigger role; 69% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Chuba HubbardCARRBInjury opening | 73Rising | 93%top-24 | 20.5(14.0 exp) | 94% | Expected points 12.8 → 14.0 a game and route share 71% → 89% (est.) after Jonathon Brooks’s injury; 93% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Tucker KraftGBTEInjury opening | 73Rising | 82%top-12 | 11.6(15.8 exp) | 85% | Expected points 6.5 → 15.8 a game and route share 80% → 84% (est.) after Jayden Reed’s injury; 82% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Matthew GoldenGBWRInjury opening | 72Rising | 57%top-24 | 16.4(16.2 exp) | 87% | Rising on small moves across several channels; 57% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Konata MumpfieldLARWRRole change | 72Rising | 15%top-24 | 10.5(9.0 exp) | 1% | Expected points 2.1 → 9.0 a game and snap share 48% → 50% in a bigger role; 15% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Davante AdamsLARWRRole change | 71Rising | 89%top-24 | 14.0(19.2 exp) | 99% | Expected points 12.6 → 19.2 a game and route share 69% → 97% (est.) in a bigger role; 89% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
Next: Pre-breakout pickups · Pickups by need · Waiver wire · Usage risers
How this works
The score compares each player’s last two games with his baseline (earlier games this season, shrunk toward last season), channel by channel, and keeps only the share of each change that history says will stick for that cause and position. The weighted sum is the expected change in PPR points per game over his next three games; 50 + 50 × tanh(change ÷ scale) puts it on 0–100.
Breakout probability is a logistic model on projected opportunity, season and recent points, and the Ascension change, fitted per position on 2023–25 without looking ahead. Route share is an estimate in 2026 (no participation data yet) and is marked “est.”. Points use your scoring format; the score and probability are PPR-based.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play, snap counts and participation, ESPN rostered %Updated Tue, Oct 6, 5:42 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
What is the NFL Ascension score?
A 0–100 number for how much a player’s role is growing in ways that tend to stick. It combines his recent change in snap share, route share, target share, carry share, red-zone and goal-line share and air-yards share, each weighted by how much of that kind of change carried into later games in 2023–25 (a promotion after an injury sticks more than a target spike at steady snaps). 50 means no change; 75+ is Surging, 25 and under is Falling.
What does breakout probability mean?
The chance of at least one top-24 week (RB, WR) or top-12 week (QB, TE) in PPR scoring over his team’s next three games. It is a calibrated probability: of players we gave 30–40%, about 39% had one in our 2024–25 test.
What is a pre-breakout stash?
A player whose usage is rising (score 60+, or a 35%+ breakout chance with a score of 55+), whose points over his last two games trail what that usage usually scores by 2+ points a game, and who is rostered in under half of ESPN leagues. In testing these players broke out about as often as other risers, but their points went up afterwards (+0.8 a game) while risers who had already scored fell back (−3.8): you get them before the points arrive.
Are route shares real routes?
No. Route share is an estimate of the share of his team’s dropbacks he was on the field for. Through 2025 it comes from nflverse participation data; from 2026 we estimate it from snap share with a position-specific adjustment and his own 2025 rate (typical error about 6 points a game, 4 points over a season). Pass blockers count as being on the field.