2026 season · usage through Week 3
NFL Ascension: breakout candidates for Week 4
Whose role is growing in ways that stick, how likely he is to post a top-24 (top-12 at QB and TE) week in his next three games, and which risers are still cheap because the points have not caught up. This week’s highest score: Brock Bowers (97).
Ascension leaderboard
Highest Ascension scores: usage changes that tend to stick, ranked by the expected gain.
| Rostered | Why | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brock BowersLVTEBack from absence | 97Surging | 99%top-12 | 27.6(25.0 exp) | – | Expected points 11.8 → 25.0 a game and route share 79% → 83% (est.) back from an absence; 99% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Adonai MitchellNYJWRInjured | 91Surging | 39%top-24 | 12.3(19.4 exp) | – | Expected points 4.3 → 19.5 a game and snap share 69% → 82% after missing time; 39% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Luther Burden IIICHIWRRole change | 90Surging | 57%top-24 | 13.0(20.8 exp) | – | Expected points 7.7 → 20.8 a game in a bigger role; 57% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Case KeenumCHIQBRole change | 89Surging | 62%top-12 | 24.5(17.6 exp) | – | Expected points 1.0 → 17.6 a game and snap share 5% → 100% in a bigger role; 62% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Kenneth Walker IIIKCRBRole change | 88Surging | 98%top-24 | 22.6(26.6 exp) | – | Expected points 22.7 → 26.6 a game and snap share 68% → 78% in a bigger role; 98% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Michael WilsonARIWRRole change | 87Surging | 83%top-24 | 14.9(23.0 exp) | – | Expected points 10.0 → 23.0 a game and snap share 85% → 94% in a bigger role; 83% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Josh DownsINDWRRole change | 83Surging | 59%top-24 | 13.5(18.9 exp) | – | Expected points 5.7 → 18.9 a game in a bigger role; 59% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Ryan FlournoyDALWRRole change | 81Surging | 39%top-24 | 5.8(14.7 exp) | – | Expected points 5.7 → 14.7 a game in a bigger role; 39% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Christian WatsonGBWRInjury opening | 80Surging | 87%top-24 | 18.4(20.8 exp) | – | Expected points 13.7 → 20.8 a game and route share 82% → 91% (est.) after Jayden Reed’s injury; 87% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jonah ColemanDENRB | 80Surging | 20%top-24 | 14.8(11.6 exp) | – | Expected points 0.0 → 11.6 a game and snap share 6% → 40%; 20% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 AJ BarnerSEATERole change | 80Surging | 71%top-12 | 9.9(12.2 exp) | – | Expected points 2.9 → 12.2 a game in a bigger role; 71% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Jahmyr GibbsDETRBRole change | 79Surging | 100%top-24 | 32.4(27.7 exp) | – | Snap share 74% → 76% and route share 76% → 78% (est.) in a bigger role; 100% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Skyy MooreGBWRInjury opening | 78Surging | 9%top-24 | 4.4(9.5 exp) | – | Expected points 3.8 → 9.5 a game and route share 7% → 47% (est.) after Jayden Reed’s injury; 9% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Germie BernardPITWRRole change | 77Surging | 11%top-24 | 5.0(7.6 exp) | – | Expected points 0.0 → 7.6 a game and route share 5% → 57% (est.) in a bigger role; 11% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Ollie Gordon IIMIARBRole change | 76Surging | 40%top-24 | 7.6(8.5 exp) | – | Expected points 0.0 → 8.5 a game and snap share 7% → 52% in a bigger role; 40% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Bhayshul TutenJAXRBRole change | 76Surging | 71%top-24 | 15.6(12.7 exp) | – | Expected points 7.8 → 12.7 a game in a bigger role; 71% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Emanuel WilsonSEARBRole change | 75Surging | 44%top-24 | 5.3(12.7 exp) | – | Expected points 0.9 → 12.7 a game and snap share 6% → 39% in a bigger role; 44% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Greg DulcichMIATERole change | 75Rising | 42%top-12 | 7.1(9.3 exp) | – | Expected points 2.9 → 9.3 a game in a bigger role; 42% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 DeVonta SmithPHIWRRole change | 75Rising | 78%top-24 | 20.1(17.3 exp) | – | Expected points 8.6 → 17.3 a game in a bigger role; 78% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 KC ConcepcionCLEWRRole change | 74Rising | 38%top-24 | 5.6(13.3 exp) | – | Expected points 8.8 → 13.3 a game and route share 74% → 81% (est.) in a bigger role; 38% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Konata MumpfieldLARWRInjury opening | 74Rising | 17%top-24 | 10.8(8.3 exp) | – | Expected points 1.4 → 8.3 a game and snap share 26% → 71% after Puka Nacua’s injury; 17% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Dontayvion WicksPHIWRRole change | 74Rising | 41%top-24 | 8.8(11.4 exp) | – | Expected points 8.0 → 11.4 a game in a bigger role; 41% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Kalif RaymondCHIWRRole change | 74Rising | 43%top-24 | 15.0(10.9 exp) | – | Snap share 60% → 69% and route share 63% → 71% (est.) in a bigger role; 43% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Deshaun WatsonCLEQBRole change | 74Rising | 70%top-12 | 20.0(18.9 exp) | – | Expected points 15.1 → 18.9 a game and goal-line share 0% → 100% in a bigger role; 70% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Parker WashingtonJAXWRRole change | 74Rising | 74%top-24 | 14.9(15.6 exp) | – | Expected points 8.6 → 15.6 a game and snap share 61% → 81% in a bigger role; 74% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Malik WillisMIAQBRole change | 73Rising | 60%top-12 | 11.2(14.7 exp) | – | Rising on small moves across several channels; 60% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Malik WashingtonMIAWRRole change | 73Rising | 45%top-24 | 9.9(13.4 exp) | – | Expected points 11.4 → 13.4 a game in a bigger role; 45% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Devaughn VeleNOWRRole change | 73Rising | 51%top-24 | 9.2(11.6 exp) | – | Rising on small moves across several channels; 51% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Isaiah WilliamsNYJWRRole change | 73Rising | 24%top-24 | 7.0(7.2 exp) | – | Expected points 1.4 → 7.1 a game and route share 67% → 93% (est.) in a bigger role; 24% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jeremiyah LoveARIRBRole change | 72Rising | 83%top-24 | 14.7(16.6 exp) | – | Expected points 14.9 → 16.6 a game and snap share 43% → 52% in a bigger role; 83% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Harold Fannin Jr.CLETERole change | 72Rising | 85%top-12 | 17.3(12.9 exp) | – | Expected points 4.3 → 12.9 a game and route share 82% → 88% (est.) in a bigger role; 85% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Isaiah LikelyNYGTERole change | 72Rising | 61%top-12 | 5.8(10.9 exp) | – | Route share 50% → 86% (est.) and snap share 49% → 77% in a bigger role; 61% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 Laquon TreadwellINDWRRole change | 71Rising | 12%top-24 | 6.1(2.9 exp) | – | Snap share 35% → 77% and route share 37% → 78% (est.) in a bigger role; 12% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Darren WallerCARTERole change | 71Rising | 49%top-12 | 14.2(10.0 exp) | – | Expected points 2.9 → 10.0 a game and route share 36% → 52% (est.) in a bigger role; 49% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. |
 D'Andre SwiftCHIRBRole change | 71Rising | 95%top-24 | 11.9(18.2 exp) | – | Expected points 15.5 → 18.2 a game and route share 57% → 68% (est.) in a bigger role; 95% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 George HolaniSEARBRole change | 71Rising | 30%top-24 | 6.7(8.5 exp) | – | Expected points 6.9 → 8.5 a game in a bigger role; 30% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Roman WilsonPITWRRole change | 71Rising | 23%top-24 | 11.4(8.6 exp) | – | Snap share 55% → 59% and route share 58% → 61% (est.) in a bigger role; 23% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Matthew GoldenGBWRInjury opening | 71Rising | 52%top-24 | 15.4(14.0 exp) | – | Route share 90% → 92% (est.) and snap share 82% → 84% after Jayden Reed’s injury; 52% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRUsage growth | 70Rising | 98%top-24 | 38.9(25.2 exp) | – | Expected points 22.7 → 25.2 a game at steady snaps (less sticky); 98% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
 Garrett WilsonNYJWRRole change | 70Rising | 82%top-24 | 21.7(15.4 exp) | – | Expected points 10.0 → 15.4 a game and route share 80% → 96% (est.) in a bigger role; 82% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. |
Next: Pre-breakout pickups · Pickups by need · Waiver wire · Usage risers
How this works
The score compares each player’s last two games with his baseline (earlier games this season, shrunk toward last season), channel by channel, and keeps only the share of each change that history says will stick for that cause and position. The weighted sum is the expected change in PPR points per game over his next three games; 50 + 50 × tanh(change ÷ scale) puts it on 0–100.
Breakout probability is a logistic model on projected opportunity, season and recent points, and the Ascension change, fitted per position on 2023–25 without looking ahead. Route share is an estimate in 2026 (no participation data yet) and is marked “est.”. Points use your scoring format; the score and probability are PPR-based.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play, snap counts and participation, ESPN rostered %Updated Tue, Oct 6, 5:42 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
What is the NFL Ascension score?
A 0–100 number for how much a player’s role is growing in ways that tend to stick. It combines his recent change in snap share, route share, target share, carry share, red-zone and goal-line share and air-yards share, each weighted by how much of that kind of change carried into later games in 2023–25 (a promotion after an injury sticks more than a target spike at steady snaps). 50 means no change; 75+ is Surging, 25 and under is Falling.
What does breakout probability mean?
The chance of at least one top-24 week (RB, WR) or top-12 week (QB, TE) in PPR scoring over his team’s next three games. It is a calibrated probability: of players we gave 30–40%, about 39% had one in our 2024–25 test.
What is a pre-breakout stash?
A player whose usage is rising (score 60+, or a 35%+ breakout chance with a score of 55+), whose points over his last two games trail what that usage usually scores by 2+ points a game, and who is rostered in under half of ESPN leagues. In testing these players broke out about as often as other risers, but their points went up afterwards (+0.8 a game) while risers who had already scored fell back (−3.8): you get them before the points arrive.
Are route shares real routes?
No. Route share is an estimate of the share of his team’s dropbacks he was on the field for. Through 2025 it comes from nflverse participation data; from 2026 we estimate it from snap share with a position-specific adjustment and his own 2025 rate (typical error about 6 points a game, 4 points over a season). Pass blockers count as being on the field.