2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Wilson over Kamara in PPR. A 25.3 implied team total vs 20.5; SF allows the 6th-most RB points; Expected 11.1 vs 10.8 PPR points after the chance to play.
Alvin KamaraNORBvs MIN12.4 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.1 · ceiling 22
A 20.5 implied team total vs 25.3; MIN allows the fewest RB points; Expected 10.8 vs 11.1 PPR points after the chance to play.
Low
Emanuel WilsonSEARBvs SF12.8 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.5 · ceiling 23
A 25.3 implied team total vs 20.5; SF allows the 6th-most RB points; Expected 11.1 vs 10.8 PPR points after the chance to play.
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartAlvin Kamara stats and usageEmanuel Wilson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Wilson over Kamara in PPR. A 25.3 implied team total vs 20.5; SF allows the 6th-most RB points; Expected 11.1 vs 10.8 PPR points after the chance to play.
Emanuel Wilson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 23 PPR points against 22 for Alvin Kamara, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Emanuel Wilson: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 4, and a 87% chance to play vs 87%.
PPR: Kamara 12.4, Wilson 12.8; half-PPR: Kamara 10.9, Wilson 12.2; standard: Kamara 9.4, Wilson 11.6 (points if he plays).
