2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Toss-up between Kamara and Barkley in PPR. Too close to call: 10.8 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; Kamara's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (29% → 38%); MIN allows the fewest RB points. In standard scoring the call flips to Barkley.
Alvin KamaraNORBvs MIN12.4 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.1 · ceiling 22
Too close to call: 10.8 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; Kamara's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (29% → 38%); MIN allows the fewest RB points.
Low
Saquon BarkleyPHIRB@ JAX10.9 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.8 · ceiling 20
Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.8 projected PPR points; Kamara's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (29% → 38%); JAX allows the 5th-fewest RB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartAlvin Kamara stats and usageSaquon Barkley stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Kamara and Barkley in PPR. Too close to call: 10.8 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; Kamara's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (29% → 38%); MIN allows the fewest RB points. In standard scoring the call flips to Barkley.
Alvin Kamara: his 90th-percentile outcome is 22 PPR points against 20 for Saquon Barkley, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Alvin Kamara: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 3, and a 87% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Kamara 12.4, Barkley 10.9; half-PPR: Kamara 10.9, Barkley 10.0; standard: Kamara 9.4, Barkley 9.1 (points if he plays).
