2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Toss-up between Wilson and Judkins in PPR. Too close to call: 11.1 vs 11.2 projected PPR points; a 25.3 implied team total vs 18.5; SF allows the 6th-most RB points. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Wilson. In standard scoring the call flips to Wilson.
Emanuel WilsonSEARBvs SF12.8 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.5 · ceiling 23
Too close to call: 11.1 vs 11.2 projected PPR points; a 25.3 implied team total vs 18.5; SF allows the 6th-most RB points.
Low
Quinshon JudkinsCLERB@ NYJ11.4 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 10.2 · ceiling 21
Too close to call: 11.2 vs 11.1 projected PPR points; a 18.5 implied team total vs 25.3; NYJ allows the most RB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartEmanuel Wilson stats and usageQuinshon Judkins stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Wilson and Judkins in PPR. Too close to call: 11.1 vs 11.2 projected PPR points; a 25.3 implied team total vs 18.5; SF allows the 6th-most RB points. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Wilson. In standard scoring the call flips to Wilson.
Emanuel Wilson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 23 PPR points against 21 for Quinshon Judkins, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Quinshon Judkins: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 87%.
PPR: Wilson 12.8, Judkins 11.5; half-PPR: Wilson 12.2, Judkins 10.2; standard: Wilson 11.6, Judkins 9.0 (points if he plays).
