2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Montgomery over Judkins in PPR. A 22.5 implied team total vs 18.5; Projects 11.9 vs 11.5 PPR points.
David MontgomeryHOURB@ TEN11.9 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 10.8 · ceiling 22
A 22.5 implied team total vs 18.5; Projects 11.9 vs 11.5 PPR points.
Medium
Quinshon JudkinsCLERB@ NYJ11.4 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 10.2 · ceiling 21
A 18.5 implied team total vs 22.5; Projects 11.5 vs 11.9 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartDavid Montgomery stats and usageQuinshon Judkins stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Montgomery over Judkins in PPR. A 22.5 implied team total vs 18.5; Projects 11.9 vs 11.5 PPR points.
David Montgomery: his 90th-percentile outcome is 22 PPR points against 21 for Quinshon Judkins, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Quinshon Judkins: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Montgomery 11.9, Judkins 11.5; half-PPR: Montgomery 11.2, Judkins 10.2; standard: Montgomery 10.6, Judkins 9.0 (points if he plays).
