2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Tate over Nabers in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Nabers would project ahead (0.5 points); Projects 12.3 vs 11.8 PPR points; 8.2 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Nabers.
Carnell TateTENWRvs HOU12.3 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.2 · ceiling 22
Scoring decides it: in standard Nabers would project ahead (0.5 points); Projects 12.3 vs 11.8 PPR points; 8.2 projected targets.
Medium
Malik NabersNYGWR@ WAS11.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 10.8 · ceiling 22
Scoring decides it: in standard Nabers would project ahead (0.5 points); Projects 11.8 vs 12.3 PPR points; HOU allows the 3rd-most WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartCarnell Tate stats and usageMalik Nabers stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Tate over Nabers in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Nabers would project ahead (0.5 points); Projects 12.3 vs 11.8 PPR points; 8.2 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Nabers.
Carnell Tate: his 90th-percentile outcome is 22 PPR points against 22 for Malik Nabers, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Carnell Tate: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Tate 12.3, Nabers 11.8; half-PPR: Tate 9.5, Nabers 9.5; standard: Tate 6.7, Nabers 7.2 (points if he plays).
