2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Evans over Nabers in PPR. Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); Projects 12.5 vs 11.8 PPR points.
Malik NabersNYGWR@ WAS11.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 10.8 · ceiling 22
Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); Projects 11.8 vs 12.5 PPR points.
Medium
Mike EvansSFWR@ SEA12.5 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.2 · ceiling 24
Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); Projects 12.5 vs 11.8 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartMalik Nabers stats and usageMike Evans stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Evans over Nabers in PPR. Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); Projects 12.5 vs 11.8 PPR points.
Mike Evans: his 90th-percentile outcome is 24 PPR points against 22 for Malik Nabers, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Mike Evans: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Nabers 11.8, Evans 12.5; half-PPR: Nabers 9.5, Evans 10.2; standard: Nabers 7.2, Evans 7.9 (points if he plays).
