2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Evans and Diggs in PPR. Too close to call: 12.2 vs 12.3 projected PPR points; Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%).
Mike EvansSFWR@ SEA12.5 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.2 · ceiling 24
Too close to call: 12.2 vs 12.3 projected PPR points; Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%).
Medium
Stefon DiggsWASWRvs NYG12.6 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.1 · ceiling 24
Too close to call: 12.3 vs 12.2 projected PPR points; Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%); Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartMike Evans stats and usageStefon Diggs stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Evans and Diggs in PPR. Too close to call: 12.2 vs 12.3 projected PPR points; Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%).
Mike Evans: his 90th-percentile outcome is 24 PPR points against 24 for Stefon Diggs, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Mike Evans: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Evans 12.5, Diggs 12.6; half-PPR: Evans 10.2, Diggs 10.2; standard: Evans 7.9, Diggs 7.8 (points if he plays).
