2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Tate and Evans in PPR. Too close to call: 12.0 vs 12.2 projected PPR points; Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); a 16.0 implied team total vs 22.3. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Evans. In standard scoring the call flips to Evans.
Carnell TateTENWRvs HOU12.3 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.2 · ceiling 22
Too close to call: 12.0 vs 12.2 projected PPR points; Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); a 16.0 implied team total vs 22.3.
Medium
Mike EvansSFWR@ SEA12.5 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.2 · ceiling 24
Too close to call: 12.2 vs 12.0 projected PPR points; Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); a 22.3 implied team total vs 16.0.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartCarnell Tate stats and usageMike Evans stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Tate and Evans in PPR. Too close to call: 12.0 vs 12.2 projected PPR points; Evans's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (14% → 28%); a 16.0 implied team total vs 22.3. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Evans. In standard scoring the call flips to Evans.
Mike Evans: his 90th-percentile outcome is 24 PPR points against 22 for Carnell Tate, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Carnell Tate: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Tate 12.3, Evans 12.5; half-PPR: Tate 9.5, Evans 10.2; standard: Tate 6.7, Evans 7.9 (points if he plays).
