2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Diggs over Tate in PPR. Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%); a 23.3 implied team total vs 16.0; Projects 12.6 vs 12.3 PPR points.
Carnell TateTENWRvs HOU12.3 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.2 · ceiling 22
Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%); a 16.0 implied team total vs 23.3; Projects 12.3 vs 12.6 PPR points.
Medium
Stefon DiggsWASWRvs NYG12.6 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.1 · ceiling 24
Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%); a 23.3 implied team total vs 16.0; Projects 12.6 vs 12.3 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartCarnell Tate stats and usageStefon Diggs stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Diggs over Tate in PPR. Diggs's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (18% → 25%); a 23.3 implied team total vs 16.0; Projects 12.6 vs 12.3 PPR points.
Stefon Diggs: his 90th-percentile outcome is 24 PPR points against 22 for Carnell Tate, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Carnell Tate: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Tate 12.3, Diggs 12.6; half-PPR: Tate 9.5, Diggs 10.2; standard: Tate 6.7, Diggs 7.8 (points if he plays).
