Promoted to PP1 · Oct 17, 2026
Zachary Bolduc breakout comps
Zachary Bolduc (R, Montreal Canadiens, 23): TOI 13:42 → 14:48 (+1:06), PP share 22% → 54%. Before the jump he averaged 0.71 points a game over 7 games with 1.06 expected goals per 60.
8 comps scored a median 0.55 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.30 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Since the jump: 1 game, 1.00 P/GP, 14:48 TOI. Comp pool: 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26.
Comps: points per game over the next 20, vs before the jump
The comps
| Comp | Jump | Age | P/GP before | Next 20: P/GP | Kept role | Similarity | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett HaytonC · UTA · Jan 21, 2026 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 14:38 → 15:50 (+1:12), PP share 23% → 56% | 25 | 14:38 | 23% | 1.19 | 0.60 | 0.55 (−0.05) | No | 78 |
| Alexis LafrenièreL · NYR · Jan 28, 2026 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 15:49 → 16:27 (+0:38), PP share 26% → 53% | 24 | 15:49 | 26% | 0.81 | 0.60 | 1.10 (+0.50) | Yes | 71 |
| Joel FarabeeL · PHI · Dec 31, 2024 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 15:17 → 15:38 (+0:21), PP share 25% → 53% | 24 | 15:17 | 25% | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.30 (−0.20) | No | 75 |
| Mackie SamoskevichR · FLA · Dec 27, 2025 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 14:47 → 15:38 (+0:51), PP share 28% → 46% | 23 | 14:47 | 28% | 1.12 | 0.50 | 0.15 (−0.35) | No | 70 |
| Lukas ReichelL · CHI · Oct 28, 2024 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 11:22 → 13:12 (+1:50), PP share 15% → 43% | 22 | 11:22 | 15% | 1.08 | 0.60 | 0.30 (−0.30) | No | 73 |
| Jack QuinnR · BUF · Jan 31, 2026 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 15:16 → 17:10 (+1:54), PP share 21% → 61% | 24 | 15:16 | 21% | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.60 (−0.40) | No | 69 |
| Linus KarlssonC · VAN · Jan 15, 2026 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 13:19 → 12:36 (−0:43), PP share 25% → 55% | 26 | 13:19 | 25% | 1.08 | 0.70 | 0.35 (−0.35) | No | 68 |
| Marco RossiC · MIN · Nov 23, 2024 | Promoted to PP1: TOI 16:00 → 17:56 (+1:56), PP share 29% → 51% | 23 | 16:00 | 29% | 1.25 | 0.70 | 0.90 (+0.20) | Yes | 71 |
FAQ
Is Zachary Bolduc's new role a breakout?
Zachary Bolduc (promoted to pp1 on Oct 17, 2026: TOI 13:42 → 14:48 (+1:06), PP share 22% → 54%) compares with 8 historical jumps. 8 comps scored a median 0.55 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.30 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Who are Zachary Bolduc's closest comparables?
Barrett Hayton (2025-26, 0.55 P/GP over the next 20 games); Alexis Lafrenière (2025-26, 1.10 P/GP over the next 20 games); Joel Farabee (2024-25, 0.30 P/GP over the next 20 games)
How the comps are built
- A jump is a promotion from our deployment tracker (PP1, a line move up, or an ice-time spike) or a sustained change we detect ourselves: TOI up 2:30 or more across 3 straight games, or power-play share up 20 points.
- The pre-jump profile covers the 10 games before: TOI, power-play share, expected goals per 60, shot diet (xG per unblocked attempt), points per game and age.
- Comps are the 8 nearest historical jumps at the same position group on those features plus the size of the jump, one per player, among jumps with a full 20-game outcome.
- We report what the comps did over the next 20 games (points per game and the change from before), and whether they kept at least half of the jump in games 11 to 20.