Matchup Forecast
NHL Line Matchups: October 5, 2026
Which forward line and defence pair each player is expected to face at 5-on-5 on Monday, Oct 5, 2026, and for how long. The forecast is built from each coach's matching habits at home and on the road. Find the scorers walking into a shutdown pair and the second lines that get sheltered minutes.
Tested on 556 held-out games: who draws tough or soft competition is predictable. The forecast shift correlated 0.41 for forwards and 0.54 for defence with what happened. The effect is small, about half a point of opponents' xGF% at the extremes, and exact minutes against each opponent are only slightly better than random mixing (2% less error). Treat it as a tiebreaker. How we test it
Toughest draws
Top-nine forwards expected to see the strongest competition, relative to a random draw. Competition is the opponents' 5v5 expected-goals share, weighted by expected minutes, in percentage points.
| Player | Role | Competition | vs top pair | Sees most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin CelebriniSJS | Line 1 · 15.7 min | +0.4 | 46% | Heiskanen, Harley, Lindell |
| Will SmithSJS | Line 1 · 14.2 min | +0.4 | 45% | Heiskanen, Harley, Lindell |
| Collin GrafSJS | Line 1 · 13.7 min | +0.4 | 45% | Harley, Heiskanen, Johnston |
| JJ PeterkaBOS | Line 1 · 15.0 min | +0.3 | 49% | Chabot, Spence, Stützle |
| Casey MittelstadtBOS | Line 2 · 13.2 min | +0.2 | 47% | Chabot, Spence, Stützle |
| Pavel ZachaBOS | Line 2 · 12.9 min | +0.2 | 48% | Spence, Chabot, Stützle |
| Alexander WennbergSJS | Line 2 · 13.5 min | +0.2 | 41% | Harley, Heiskanen, Johnston |
| David PastrnakBOS | Line 1 · 15.1 min | +0.2 | 47% | Chabot, Spence, Amadio |
Softest draws
Top-nine forwards the matchups shelter tonight, by the same measure.
| Player | Role | Competition | vs top pair | Sees most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor ChernyshovSJS | Line 3 · 12.5 min | -0.2 | 35% | Harley, Lindell, Myers |
| Arttu HyryDAL | Line 3 · 10.7 min | -0.2 | 35% | Kesselring, Orlov, Nurse |
| Mark ScheifeleWPG | Line 1 · 15.8 min | -0.1 | 44% | Karlsson, Crosby, Letang |
| Kyle ConnorWPG | Line 1 · 14.4 min | -0.1 | 44% | Karlsson, Crosby, Letang |
| Fraser MintenBOS | Line 3 · 11.8 min | -0.1 | 42% | Spence, Chabot, Matinpalo |
| James HagensBOS | Line 3 · 10.8 min | -0.1 | 41% | Spence, Chabot, Sanderson |
| Ivar StenbergSJS | Line 3 · 12.8 min | -0.1 | 37% | Harley, Bichsel, Lundkvist |
| Gabriel VilardiWPG | Line 1 · 13.9 min | -0.1 | 43% | Letang, Karlsson, Girard |
Line matchups by game (4)
The Lightning have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).
Flyers
- Line 1Tippett – Zegras – Dvorakvs TBL Hagel line 4.9 min (1.24×) · vs TBL Moser pair 5.5 min (1.13×)
- Line 2Konecny – Acciari – Couturiervs TBL Hagel line 3.7 min (1.02×) · vs TBL Moser pair 4.4 min (1.00×)
- Line 3Foerster – Martone – Grundstromvs TBL Cirelli line 3.3 min (1.01×) · vs TBL Moser pair 4.0 min (0.97×)
- Line 4Bump – Michkov – Catesvs TBL Cirelli line 2.5 min (0.89×) · vs TBL McDonagh pair 3.5 min (1.11×)
- Pair 1Sanheim – Drysdalevs TBL Hagel line 5.8 min (1.08×) · vs TBL Moser pair 6.7 min (1.02×)
- Pair 2York – Ristolainenvs TBL Hagel line 5.3 min (1.08×) · vs TBL Moser pair 6.0 min (1.00×)
- Pair 3Seeler – Jiricekvs TBL Cirelli line 3.2 min (0.91×) · vs TBL McDonagh pair 4.0 min (1.05×)
Lightning
- Line 1Hagel – Kucherov – Holmbergvs PHI Tippett line 4.9 min (1.24×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 5.8 min (1.08×)
- Line 2Cirelli – Goncalves – Guentzelvs PHI Tippett line 3.8 min (1.00×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 5.5 min (1.08×)
- Line 3Point – Mikheyev – Girgensonsvs PHI Konecny line 3.1 min (1.07×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 4.2 min (0.97×)
- Line 4Viel – Geekievs PHI Bump line 2.4 min (1.40×) · vs PHI Seeler pair 3.0 min (1.42×)
- Pair 1Moser – Cernakvs PHI Tippett line 5.5 min (1.13×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 6.7 min (1.02×)
- Pair 2McDonagh – D'Astousvs PHI Tippett line 4.3 min (1.04×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 5.4 min (0.96×)
- Pair 3Lilleberg – Carlson – Hedmanvs PHI Foerster line 3.5 min (1.11×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 4.6 min (0.92×)
Full line-vs-line grid
| TBL | Line 1Tippett | Line 2Konecny | Line 3Foerster | Line 4Bump | Pair 1Sanheim | Pair 2York | Pair 3Seeler |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 Hagel | 4.9(1.2) | 3.7(1.0) | 3.0(0.9) | 2.4(0.8) | 5.8(1.1) | 5.3(1.1) | 2.9(0.8) |
| Line 2 Cirelli | 3.8(1.0) | 3.6(1.1) | 3.3(1.0) | 2.5(0.9) | 5.5(1.1) | 4.7(1.0) | 3.2(0.9) |
| Line 3 Point | 3.0(0.9) | 3.1(1.1) | 2.8(1.0) | 2.4(1.0) | 4.2(1.0) | 3.9(1.0) | 3.2(1.1) |
| Line 4 Viel | 1.7(0.8) | 1.6(0.8) | 2.1(1.1) | 2.4(1.4) | 2.6(0.8) | 2.6(0.9) | 3.0(1.4) |
| Pair 1 Moser | 5.5(1.1) | 4.4(1.0) | 4.0(1.0) | 3.4(0.9) | 6.7(1.0) | 6.0(1.0) | 4.0(0.9) |
| Pair 2 McDonagh | 4.3(1.0) | 3.4(0.9) | 3.5(1.0) | 3.5(1.1) | 5.4(1.0) | 5.1(1.0) | 4.0(1.1) |
| Pair 3 Lilleberg | 2.8(0.8) | 3.4(1.0) | 3.5(1.1) | 3.4(1.2) | 4.6(0.9) | 4.3(0.9) | 3.9(1.1) |
The Bruins have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).
Senators
- Line 1Stützle – Amadio – Cozensvs BOS Pastrnak line 4.8 min (1.11×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 5.0 min (0.98×)
- Line 2Batherson – Pinto – Girouxvs BOS Pastrnak line 4.6 min (1.17×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 5.1 min (1.10×)
- Line 3Foegele – Eklund – Cousinsvs BOS Pastrnak line 3.2 min (0.98×) · vs BOS Borgen pair 3.9 min (1.07×)
- Line 4Zetterlund – Halliday – Hodgsonvs BOS Kuraly line 3.3 min (1.99×) · vs BOS Lindholm pair 3.1 min (1.15×)
- Pair 1Spence – Chabotvs BOS Pastrnak line 6.9 min (1.06×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 7.4 min (0.98×)
- Pair 2Matinpalo – Klevenvs BOS Pastrnak line 4.4 min (0.92×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 5.8 min (1.03×)
- Pair 3Sanderson – Yakemchukvs BOS Pastrnak line 3.8 min (0.93×) · vs BOS Borgen pair 4.7 min (1.04×)
Bruins
- Line 1Pastrnak – Peterka – Geekievs OTT Stützle line 4.8 min (1.11×) · vs OTT Spence pair 6.9 min (1.06×)
- Line 2Mittelstadt – Zacha – Lindholmvs OTT Stützle line 4.4 min (1.14×) · vs OTT Spence pair 6.1 min (1.07×)
- Line 3Minten – Khusnutdinov – Hagensvs OTT Stützle line 3.6 min (1.05×) · vs OTT Spence pair 4.8 min (0.96×)
- Line 4Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelicvs OTT Zetterlund line 3.3 min (1.99×) · vs OTT Spence pair 3.8 min (0.92×)
- Pair 1Clifton – Zadorovvs OTT Batherson line 5.1 min (1.10×) · vs OTT Spence pair 7.4 min (0.98×)
- Pair 2Borgen – Lohreivs OTT Stützle line 4.7 min (0.97×) · vs OTT Spence pair 7.0 min (0.98×)
- Pair 3Lindholm – Aspirotvs OTT Stützle line 4.5 min (0.98×) · vs OTT Spence pair 6.7 min (0.98×)
Full line-vs-line grid
| BOS | Line 1Stützle | Line 2Batherson | Line 3Foegele | Line 4Zetterlund | Pair 1Spence | Pair 2Matinpalo | Pair 3Sanderson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 Pastrnak | 4.8(1.1) | 4.6(1.2) | 3.2(1.0) | 1.7(0.7) | 6.9(1.1) | 4.4(0.9) | 3.8(0.9) |
| Line 2 Mittelstadt | 4.4(1.1) | 3.8(1.1) | 2.8(0.9) | 1.4(0.6) | 6.1(1.1) | 4.3(1.0) | 3.3(0.9) |
| Line 3 Minten | 3.6(1.1) | 2.7(0.9) | 2.7(1.0) | 2.0(1.0) | 4.8(1.0) | 3.9(1.0) | 3.4(1.1) |
| Line 4 Kuraly | 1.8(0.7) | 1.9(0.8) | 2.1(1.0) | 3.3(2.0) | 3.8(0.9) | 3.1(1.0) | 2.8(1.1) |
| Pair 1 Clifton | 5.0(1.0) | 5.1(1.1) | 3.8(1.0) | 2.8(0.9) | 7.4(1.0) | 5.8(1.0) | 4.7(1.0) |
| Pair 2 Borgen | 4.7(1.0) | 4.2(1.0) | 3.9(1.1) | 2.9(1.0) | 7.0(1.0) | 5.1(1.0) | 4.7(1.0) |
| Pair 3 Lindholm | 4.5(1.0) | 3.9(0.9) | 3.5(1.0) | 3.1(1.1) | 6.7(1.0) | 5.1(1.0) | 4.3(1.0) |
The Penguins have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).
Jets
- Line 1Scheifele – Connor – Vilardivs PIT Crosby line 5.2 min (1.18×) · vs PIT Karlsson pair 6.4 min (1.15×)
- Line 2Perfetti – Iafallo – Barronvs PIT Crosby line 4.1 min (1.02×) · vs PIT Karlsson pair 4.9 min (0.97×)
- Line 3Lowry – Björck – Niederreitervs PIT Crosby line 3.1 min (0.86×) · vs PIT Girard pair 4.2 min (1.02×)
- Line 4Lambert – Rosen – Namestnikovvs PIT Robertson line 2.7 min (1.02×) · vs PIT van Riemsdyk pair 4.2 min (1.31×)
- Pair 1Pionk – Morrisseyvs PIT Crosby line 6.2 min (1.09×) · vs PIT Karlsson pair 7.6 min (1.06×)
- Pair 2Samberg – DeMelovs PIT Crosby line 5.7 min (1.04×) · vs PIT Karlsson pair 7.2 min (1.02×)
- Pair 3Ferraro – Bauervs PIT Dewar line 2.9 min (1.19×) · vs PIT van Riemsdyk pair 3.8 min (1.14×)
Penguins
- Line 1Crosby – Rakell – Malkinvs WPG Scheifele line 5.2 min (1.18×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 6.2 min (1.09×)
- Line 2Robertson – Chinakhov – Novakvs WPG Scheifele line 4.0 min (1.03×) · vs WPG Samberg pair 5.0 min (1.03×)
- Line 3Dewar – Lizotte – Kindelvs WPG Scheifele line 3.2 min (0.96×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 4.2 min (0.97×)
- Line 4Lapierre – Kuzmenko – Hallandervs WPG Lowry line 2.5 min (1.15×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 3.4 min (0.97×)
- Pair 1Karlsson – Letangvs WPG Scheifele line 6.4 min (1.15×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 7.6 min (1.06×)
- Pair 2Girard – Korczakvs WPG Scheifele line 5.3 min (1.04×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 6.5 min (0.99×)
- Pair 3van Riemsdyk – Carlilevs WPG Perfetti line 4.3 min (1.03×) · vs WPG Samberg pair 5.5 min (0.96×)
Full line-vs-line grid
| PIT | Line 1Scheifele | Line 2Perfetti | Line 3Lowry | Line 4Lambert | Pair 1Pionk | Pair 2Samberg | Pair 3Ferraro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 Crosby | 5.2(1.2) | 4.1(1.0) | 3.1(0.9) | 2.7(0.9) | 6.2(1.1) | 5.7(1.0) | 2.4(0.8) |
| Line 2 Robertson | 4.0(1.0) | 3.5(1.0) | 2.9(0.9) | 2.7(1.0) | 4.9(1.0) | 5.0(1.0) | 2.7(1.0) |
| Line 3 Dewar | 3.2(1.0) | 2.9(0.9) | 3.0(1.1) | 2.2(1.0) | 4.2(1.0) | 4.0(0.9) | 2.9(1.2) |
| Line 4 Lapierre | 2.1(0.8) | 2.4(1.0) | 2.5(1.1) | 2.2(1.2) | 3.4(1.0) | 3.3(1.0) | 2.3(1.2) |
| Pair 1 Karlsson | 6.4(1.1) | 4.9(1.0) | 4.2(0.9) | 3.5(0.9) | 7.6(1.1) | 7.2(1.0) | 3.6(0.9) |
| Pair 2 Girard | 5.3(1.0) | 4.8(1.0) | 4.2(1.0) | 3.1(0.9) | 6.5(1.0) | 6.4(1.0) | 3.7(1.0) |
| Pair 3 van Riemsdyk | 3.4(0.7) | 4.3(1.0) | 4.1(1.1) | 4.2(1.3) | 5.4(0.9) | 5.5(1.0) | 3.8(1.1) |
The Stars have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).
Sharks
- Line 1Celebrini – Smith – Grafvs DAL Johnston line 5.5 min (1.17×) · vs DAL Harley pair 6.6 min (1.17×)
- Line 2Wennberg – Marchment – Sherwoodvs DAL Johnston line 4.6 min (1.06×) · vs DAL Harley pair 5.4 min (1.03×)
- Line 3Stenberg – Chernyshov – Misavs DAL Johnston line 3.7 min (0.93×) · vs DAL Harley pair 4.3 min (0.91×)
- Line 4Toffoli – Ostapchuk – Goodrowvs DAL Bäck line 2.5 min (1.52×) · vs DAL Lundkvist pair 3.8 min (1.26×)
- Pair 1Kesselring – Orlovvs DAL Johnston line 5.8 min (1.06×) · vs DAL Harley pair 6.8 min (1.03×)
- Pair 2Nurse – Troubavs DAL Johnston line 5.7 min (1.06×) · vs DAL Harley pair 6.5 min (1.00×)
- Pair 3Cagnoni – Allanvs DAL Hryckowian line 4.1 min (1.08×) · vs DAL Harley pair 5.4 min (0.94×)
Stars
- Line 1Johnston – Rantanen – Robertsonvs SJS Celebrini line 5.5 min (1.17×) · vs SJS Kesselring pair 5.8 min (1.06×)
- Line 2Hryckowian – Steel – Bennvs SJS Celebrini line 3.8 min (1.03×) · vs SJS Kesselring pair 4.3 min (0.99×)
- Line 3Seguin – Hintz – Hyryvs SJS Celebrini line 3.0 min (0.93×) · vs SJS Kesselring pair 3.8 min (1.00×)
- Line 4Bäck – Faksa – Blackwellvs SJS Toffoli line 2.5 min (1.52×) · vs SJS Cagnoni pair 3.1 min (1.21×)
- Pair 1Harley – Heiskanenvs SJS Celebrini line 6.6 min (1.17×) · vs SJS Kesselring pair 6.8 min (1.03×)
- Pair 2Lindell – Myersvs SJS Celebrini line 5.2 min (1.06×) · vs SJS Kesselring pair 5.7 min (1.00×)
- Pair 3Lundkvist – Bichselvs SJS Stenberg line 4.3 min (1.12×) · vs SJS Nurse pair 5.3 min (1.02×)
Full line-vs-line grid
| DAL | Line 1Celebrini | Line 2Wennberg | Line 3Stenberg | Line 4Toffoli | Pair 1Kesselring | Pair 2Nurse | Pair 3Cagnoni |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 Johnston | 5.5(1.2) | 4.6(1.1) | 3.7(0.9) | 2.4(0.8) | 5.8(1.1) | 5.7(1.1) | 3.9(0.8) |
| Line 2 Hryckowian | 3.8(1.0) | 3.6(1.0) | 3.2(1.0) | 2.1(0.9) | 4.3(1.0) | 4.1(1.0) | 4.1(1.1) |
| Line 3 Seguin | 3.0(0.9) | 2.9(1.0) | 2.9(1.1) | 2.3(1.1) | 3.8(1.0) | 3.6(1.0) | 3.2(1.0) |
| Line 4 Bäck | 1.8(0.7) | 2.0(0.8) | 2.1(1.0) | 2.5(1.5) | 2.8(0.9) | 2.8(1.0) | 3.1(1.2) |
| Pair 1 Harley | 6.6(1.2) | 5.4(1.0) | 4.3(0.9) | 3.1(0.8) | 6.8(1.0) | 6.5(1.0) | 5.4(0.9) |
| Pair 2 Lindell | 5.2(1.1) | 4.3(1.0) | 4.2(1.0) | 3.0(0.9) | 5.7(1.0) | 5.3(1.0) | 5.1(1.0) |
| Pair 3 Lundkvist | 3.4(0.7) | 4.3(1.0) | 4.3(1.1) | 3.8(1.3) | 5.0(0.9) | 5.3(1.0) | 4.8(1.0) |
How the forecast works
- We start from tonight's projected lineups: the skaters each team dressed in its last game, with their recent 5-on-5 ice time.
- Random mixing is the baseline. If coaches ignored matchups, two players would share the ice in proportion to their ice times.
- Each coach's Last-Change Fingerprint, measured at home and on the road, then tilts that baseline. It shows how often his top line has seen the other team's top line, compared with random mixing.
- Each player's own history against the opponent's top, middle and bottom lines adjusts it further. Shutdown roles live at the player level. Earlier meetings between the same two teams count too.
- Finally, every skater's row is rescaled so that his minutes add up to his projected 5-on-5 time. Every second at 5-on-5 has exactly five opponents on the ice.
Data: NHL shift charts processed by our on-ice engine (who was on the ice against whom, every second, this season and last). Forecasts refresh through the day until puck drop. Full methodology and backtest.
FAQ
What does "line matchup" mean in hockey?
It is which of the other team's forward lines and defence pairs a player shares the ice with. The home coach changes last, so he can send his checking line or shutdown pair out against the visitors' top line. Road coaches can only react on the fly.
How do you know who will face whom tonight?
We don't know for certain; it's a forecast. It combines the projected lineups and ice times, each coach's matching habits at home and on the road, each player's own record against top and depth lines, and earlier meetings between the two teams. We score every forecast against the real shift data after the game and publish the accuracy.
How accurate is the matchup forecast?
Its strongest output is who draws tough or soft competition. On held-out games, the forecast shift in each skater's opposition quality correlated 0.41 (forwards) and 0.54 (defence) with what happened, and it was well calibrated. Exact minutes against each opponent are much harder to call: it beats random mixing there by only about 2%, because lineups, penalties and line changes on the fly dominate.
How should I use matchups in fantasy hockey?
Use them as a tiebreaker, not a rule. A scorer expected to see the other team's shutdown pair has a tougher night than his season average suggests, and a sheltered second-liner an easier one. But the shift is small (about half a point of opponents' xGF% at the extremes), and power-play time, shots and the opposing goalie matter more.
What is the Last-Change Fingerprint?
It's a coach's matching tendency, measured at home (where he has last change) and on the road. Each cell compares the time one of his lines spent against one of the opponent's lines with what random mixing would give. A value above 1.00× means he seeks that matchup; below 1.00× means he avoids it.
Does it cover the power play?
No. The forecast is 5-on-5 only, where line matching happens. Power-play units are on the line combinations pages.