Edgehalla

Matchup Forecast

NHL Line Matchups Tonight

Which forward line and defence pair each player is expected to face at 5-on-5 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026, and for how long. The forecast is built from each coach's matching habits at home and on the road. Find the scorers walking into a shutdown pair and the second lines that get sheltered minutes.

Tested on 556 held-out games: who draws tough or soft competition is predictable. The forecast shift correlated 0.41 for forwards and 0.54 for defence with what happened. The effect is small, about half a point of opponents' xGF% at the extremes, and exact minutes against each opponent are only slightly better than random mixing (2% less error). Treat it as a tiebreaker. How we test it

Toughest draws

Top-nine forwards expected to see the strongest competition, relative to a random draw. Competition is the opponents' 5v5 expected-goals share, weighted by expected minutes, in percentage points.

Forwards with the toughest expected competition
PlayerRoleCompetitionvs top pairSees most
Elias PetterssonVANLine 2 · 13.5 min+0.643%Theodore, Eichel, Andersson
Mark ScheifeleWPGLine 1 · 15.8 min+0.545%Seider, Faulk, Raymond
Kyle ConnorWPGLine 1 · 14.4 min+0.545%Seider, Faulk, Raymond
Drew O'ConnorVANLine 2 · 13.0 min+0.538%Theodore, McNabb, Eichel
Mika ZibanejadNYRLine 1 · 14.2 min+0.441%Keller, Marino, Crouse
Lawson CrouseUTALine 1 · 13.9 min+0.445%Gavrikov, Zibanejad, Fox
Gabriel VilardiWPGLine 1 · 13.9 min+0.445%Seider, Chiarot, Faulk
Alexis LafrenièreNYRLine 1 · 14.3 min+0.439%Sergachev, Keller, Weegar

Softest draws

Top-nine forwards the matchups shelter tonight, by the same measure.

Forwards with the softest expected competition
PlayerRoleCompetitionvs top pairSees most
Aatu RätyVANLine 3 · 10.8 min-0.534%Wotherspoon, Lauzon, Theodore
Matt CoronatoCGYLine 1 · 14.0 min-0.441%Larsson, Dunn, Montour
Mikael BacklundCGYLine 2 · 13.3 min-0.443%Larsson, Montour, Dunn
Adam LowryWPGLine 3 · 12.6 min-0.336%Chiarot, Johansson, Faulk
Noah LabaNYRLine 3 · 11.5 min-0.334%Simashev, Peeke, Weegar
Matvei GridinCGYLine 1 · 14.3 min-0.338%Montour, Dunn, Larsson
Michael CarconeUTALine 3 · 12.0 min-0.331%Schneider, Smits, Durzi
Max SassonVANLine 3 · 11.7 min-0.336%Wotherspoon, Andersson, Theodore

Line matchups by game (5)

Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings

1:00 PM ET

The Red Wings have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).

Jets

  • Line 1Scheifele – Connor – Vilardivs DET DeBrincat line 5.5 min (1.20×) · vs DET Seider pair 6.7 min (1.19×)
  • Line 2Perfetti – Iafallo – Barronvs DET DeBrincat line 4.4 min (1.06×) · vs DET Johansson pair 5.0 min (1.02×)
  • Line 3Lowry – Björck – Niederreitervs DET Finnie line 3.2 min (0.97×) · vs DET Johansson pair 4.4 min (0.98×)
  • Line 4Lambert – Rosen – Namestnikovvs DET Appleton line 2.8 min (1.49×) · vs DET Johansson pair 3.9 min (1.41×)
  • Pair 1Pionk – Morrisseyvs DET DeBrincat line 6.5 min (1.11×) · vs DET Seider pair 7.5 min (1.04×)
  • Pair 2Samberg – DeMelovs DET DeBrincat line 5.9 min (1.05×) · vs DET Seider pair 7.2 min (1.02×)
  • Pair 3FerraroNew team · 1 GP with WPG – Bauervs DET Finnie line 2.8 min (0.95×) · vs DET Seider pair 3.8 min (0.92×)

Red Wings

  • Line 1DeBrincat – Raymond – Coppvs WPG Scheifele line 5.5 min (1.20×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 6.5 min (1.11×)
  • Line 2Finnie – Compher – ArvidssonNew team · 1 GP with DETvs WPG Scheifele line 4.4 min (1.07×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 5.4 min (1.02×)
  • Line 3Brandsegg-Nygård – Kasper – KolesarNew team · 1 GP with DETvs WPG Scheifele line 2.9 min (0.91×) · vs WPG Samberg pair 4.0 min (1.00×)
  • Line 4Appleton – Rasmussen – Danielsonvs WPG Lambert line 2.8 min (1.49×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 3.1 min (0.88×)
  • Pair 1Seider – Chiarotvs WPG Scheifele line 6.7 min (1.19×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 7.5 min (1.04×)
  • Pair 2Johansson – Faulkvs WPG Scheifele line 6.0 min (1.11×) · vs WPG Samberg pair 7.1 min (1.03×)
  • Pair 3Johansson – Sandin-Pellikkavs WPG Lowry line 4.0 min (1.22×) · vs WPG Pionk pair 4.6 min (0.89×)
Full line-vs-line grid
DET units (rows) against WPG units (columns): expected 5v5 minutes together, ratio to random mixing in brackets.
DETLine 1ScheifeleLine 2PerfettiLine 3LowryLine 4LambertPair 1PionkPair 2SambergPair 3Ferraro
Line 1 DeBrincat5.5(1.2)4.4(1.1)3.1(0.8)2.5(0.8)6.5(1.1)5.9(1.1)2.5(0.8)
Line 2 Finnie4.4(1.1)3.8(1.0)3.2(1.0)2.5(0.9)5.4(1.0)5.2(1.0)2.8(0.9)
Line 3 Brandsegg-Nygård2.9(0.9)2.9(1.0)2.8(1.1)2.2(1.0)4.0(1.0)4.0(1.0)2.6(1.1)
Line 4 Appleton1.7(0.6)2.3(0.9)2.5(1.1)2.8(1.5)3.1(0.9)3.0(0.9)2.6(1.4)
Pair 1 Seider6.7(1.2)4.8(0.9)4.2(0.9)3.4(0.9)7.5(1.0)7.2(1.0)3.8(0.9)
Pair 2 Johansson6.0(1.1)5.0(1.0)4.4(1.0)3.2(0.8)7.0(1.0)7.1(1.0)3.7(0.9)
Pair 3 Johansson2.5(0.6)3.7(1.0)4.0(1.2)3.9(1.4)4.6(0.9)4.5(0.9)3.4(1.2)

Coaching fingerprints: Jets · Red Wings

Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers

6:00 PM ET

The Rangers have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).

Mammoth

  • Line 1Keller – Schmaltz – Crousevs NYR Lafrenière line 5.6 min (1.35×) · vs NYR Gavrikov pair 6.5 min (1.21×)
  • Line 2TrocheckNew team · 2 GP with UTA – Guenther – Cooleyvs NYR Lafrenière line 4.1 min (1.05×) · vs NYR Gavrikov pair 5.3 min (1.03×)
  • Line 3Carcone – Hayton – LeeNew team · 2 GP with UTAvs NYR Cuylle line 3.1 min (1.15×) · vs NYR Schneider pair 4.2 min (1.22×)
  • Line 4Stenlund – McBain – Butvs NYR Veleno line 3.8 min (1.75×) · vs NYR Schneider pair 4.2 min (1.35×)
  • Pair 1Marino – Weegarvs NYR Lafrenière line 5.6 min (1.09×) · vs NYR Gavrikov pair 6.8 min (1.02×)
  • Pair 2Sergachev – Schmidtvs NYR Lafrenière line 5.4 min (1.09×) · vs NYR Gavrikov pair 6.6 min (1.03×)
  • Pair 3Simashev – PeekeNew team · 2 GP with UTAvs NYR Cuylle line 3.6 min (1.19×) · vs NYR Schneider pair 4.5 min (1.16×)

Rangers

  • Line 1Lafrenière – Zibanejad – Perreaultvs UTA Keller line 5.6 min (1.35×) · vs UTA Marino pair 5.6 min (1.09×)
  • Line 2DorofeyevNew team · 3 GP with NYR – BjorkstrandNew team · 3 GP with NYR – Millervs UTA Trocheck line 3.9 min (1.14×) · vs UTA Marino pair 4.7 min (1.04×)
  • Line 3Cuylle – Laba – Kartyevs UTA Trocheck line 3.2 min (1.00×) · vs UTA Marino pair 4.0 min (0.95×)
  • Line 4VelenoNew team · 3 GP with NYR – Chmelar – TolvanenNew team · 3 GP with NYRvs UTA Stenlund line 3.8 min (1.75×) · vs UTA Sergachev pair 3.7 min (1.00×)
  • Pair 1Gavrikov – PetterssonNew team · 3 GP with NYRvs UTA Keller line 6.5 min (1.21×) · vs UTA Marino pair 6.8 min (1.02×)
  • Pair 2Fox – DurziNew team · 3 GP with NYRvs UTA Keller line 5.5 min (1.13×) · vs UTA Marino pair 6.2 min (1.02×)
  • Pair 3Schneider – Smitsvs UTA Carcone line 4.2 min (1.22×) · vs UTA Marino pair 5.2 min (0.94×)
Full line-vs-line grid
NYR units (rows) against UTA units (columns): expected 5v5 minutes together, ratio to random mixing in brackets.
NYRLine 1KellerLine 2TrocheckLine 3CarconeLine 4StenlundPair 1MarinoPair 2SergachevPair 3Simashev
Line 1 Lafrenière5.6(1.4)4.1(1.1)2.6(0.8)1.8(0.6)5.6(1.1)5.4(1.1)2.8(0.8)
Line 2 Dorofeyev3.7(1.0)3.9(1.1)2.8(1.0)2.0(0.8)4.7(1.0)4.2(1.0)3.1(1.0)
Line 3 Cuylle3.0(0.9)3.2(1.0)3.1(1.1)2.4(1.0)4.0(0.9)3.8(0.9)3.6(1.2)
Line 4 Veleno1.8(0.6)2.3(0.8)2.7(1.1)3.8(1.8)3.5(0.9)3.7(1.0)3.3(1.2)
Pair 1 Gavrikov6.5(1.2)5.3(1.0)3.8(0.9)3.0(0.8)6.8(1.0)6.6(1.0)4.3(0.9)
Pair 2 Fox5.5(1.1)4.6(1.0)3.6(0.9)3.1(0.9)6.2(1.0)6.2(1.1)4.0(0.9)
Pair 3 Schneider2.9(0.7)3.9(0.9)4.2(1.2)4.2(1.4)5.2(0.9)4.8(0.9)4.5(1.2)

Coaching fingerprints: Mammoth · Rangers

Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks

8:00 PM ET

The Ducks have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).

Panthers

  • Line 1Verhaeghe – Bennett – Reinhartvs ANA Granlund line 4.4 min (1.06×) · vs ANA Luneau pair 7.8 min (1.15×)
  • Line 2Luostarinen – Tkachuk – Vilmanisvs ANA Granlund line 3.8 min (1.02×) · vs ANA Luneau pair 6.3 min (1.04×)
  • Line 3EllerNew team · 2 GP with FLA – TkachukNew team · 2 GP with FLA – Lundellvs ANA Granlund line 3.4 min (1.04×) · vs ANA Luneau pair 4.9 min (0.91×)
  • Line 4Barkov – HathawayNew team · 2 GP with FLA – ImamaNew team · 2 GP with FLAvs ANA Nesterenko line 1.9 min (1.50×) · vs ANA Luneau pair 2.4 min (0.79×)
  • Pair 1Mikkola – Jonesvs ANA Granlund line 5.8 min (1.05×) · vs ANA Luneau pair 9.0 min (1.00×)
  • Pair 2Kulikov – Balinskisvs ANA Granlund line 4.1 min (1.02×) · vs ANA Luneau pair 6.7 min (1.00×)
  • Pair 3Ekblad – GudasNew team · 2 GP with FLAvs ANA Caulfield line 3.3 min (1.12×) · vs ANA Luneau pair 5.8 min (0.98×)

Ducks

  • Line 1Granlund – Killorn – Carlssonvs FLA Verhaeghe line 4.4 min (1.06×) · vs FLA Mikkola pair 5.8 min (1.05×)
  • Line 2Sennecke – GreerNew team · 1 GP with ANA – Gauthiervs FLA Verhaeghe line 4.1 min (1.06×) · vs FLA Mikkola pair 5.5 min (1.08×)
  • Line 3Caulfield – Washe – Vatranovs FLA Verhaeghe line 3.3 min (0.99×) · vs FLA Mikkola pair 4.2 min (0.94×)
  • Line 4Nesterenko – MalottNew team · 1 GP with ANA – Poehlingvs FLA Luostarinen line 2.5 min (0.96×) · vs FLA Mikkola pair 3.6 min (0.92×)
  • Pair 1Luneau – LaCombevs FLA Verhaeghe line 7.8 min (1.15×) · vs FLA Mikkola pair 9.0 min (1.00×)
  • Pair 2MitchellNew team · 1 GP with ANA – Mintyukovvs FLA Verhaeghe line 5.0 min (1.01×) · vs FLA Mikkola pair 6.7 min (1.02×)
  • Pair 3Hinds – Warrenvs FLA Eller line 2.3 min (1.21×) · vs FLA Mikkola pair 3.1 min (0.95×)
Full line-vs-line grid
ANA units (rows) against FLA units (columns): expected 5v5 minutes together, ratio to random mixing in brackets.
ANALine 1VerhaegheLine 2LuostarinenLine 3EllerLine 4BarkovPair 1MikkolaPair 2KulikovPair 3Ekblad
Line 1 Granlund4.4(1.1)3.8(1.0)3.4(1.0)1.4(0.8)5.8(1.1)4.1(1.0)3.2(0.9)
Line 2 Sennecke4.1(1.1)3.5(1.0)3.1(1.0)1.4(0.8)5.5(1.1)3.7(1.0)3.0(0.9)
Line 3 Caulfield3.3(1.0)3.0(1.0)2.6(1.0)1.6(1.1)4.2(0.9)3.4(1.0)3.3(1.1)
Line 4 Nesterenko2.3(0.8)2.5(1.0)2.3(1.0)1.9(1.5)3.6(0.9)3.0(1.1)2.9(1.1)
Pair 1 Luneau7.8(1.1)6.3(1.0)4.9(0.9)2.4(0.8)9.0(1.0)6.7(1.0)5.8(1.0)
Pair 2 Mitchell5.0(1.0)4.3(1.0)4.0(1.0)2.3(1.1)6.7(1.0)4.7(1.0)4.2(1.0)
Pair 3 Hinds1.6(0.7)2.1(1.0)2.3(1.2)1.6(1.5)3.1(0.9)2.3(1.0)2.3(1.1)

Coaching fingerprints: Panthers · Ducks

Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken

8:00 PM ET

The Kraken have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).

Flames

  • Line 1Gridin – Coronato – Frostvs SEA McMann line 4.3 min (1.09×) · vs SEA Montour pair 5.4 min (1.06×)
  • Line 2Backlund – Farabee – Sharangovichvs SEA McMann line 4.3 min (1.20×) · vs SEA Montour pair 5.2 min (1.13×)
  • Line 3Strome – TsyplakovNew team · 2 GP with CGY – Klapkavs SEA McMann line 2.9 min (0.92×) · vs SEA Evans pair 4.2 min (1.09×)
  • Line 4Honzek – Pospisil – OthmannNew team · 3 GP with CGYvs SEA Wright line 2.9 min (1.42×) · vs SEA Evans pair 3.5 min (1.04×)
  • Pair 1Parekh – Whitecloudvs SEA McMann line 5.1 min (1.04×) · vs SEA Montour pair 6.4 min (1.00×)
  • Pair 2NemecNew team · 2 GP with CGY – MiddletonNew team · 2 GP with CGYvs SEA McMann line 4.7 min (1.03×) · vs SEA Montour pair 6.0 min (1.01×)
  • Pair 3Bahl – Hanleyvs SEA Stephenson line 3.6 min (1.02×) · vs SEA Evans pair 4.9 min (1.01×)

Kraken

  • Line 1McMann – Eberle – Beniersvs CGY Gridin line 4.3 min (1.09×) · vs CGY Parekh pair 5.1 min (1.04×)
  • Line 2Stephenson – Winterton – Kakkovs CGY Gridin line 3.6 min (1.01×) · vs CGY Nemec pair 4.3 min (1.03×)
  • Line 3Gaudreau – Catton – McCannvs CGY Gridin line 3.5 min (1.04×) · vs CGY Parekh pair 4.2 min (1.02×)
  • Line 4Wright – SamoskevichNew team · 1 GP with SEA – Meyersvs CGY Honzek line 2.9 min (1.42×) · vs CGY Parekh pair 3.8 min (1.02×)
  • Pair 1Montour – Larssonvs CGY Gridin line 5.4 min (1.06×) · vs CGY Parekh pair 6.4 min (1.00×)
  • Pair 2Evans – Dunnvs CGY Gridin line 4.9 min (0.98×) · vs CGY Parekh pair 6.0 min (0.99×)
  • Pair 3Lindgren – Fleuryvs CGY Gridin line 3.8 min (0.99×) · vs CGY Parekh pair 4.6 min (0.99×)
Full line-vs-line grid
SEA units (rows) against CGY units (columns): expected 5v5 minutes together, ratio to random mixing in brackets.
SEALine 1GridinLine 2BacklundLine 3StromeLine 4HonzekPair 1ParekhPair 2NemecPair 3Bahl
Line 1 McMann4.3(1.1)4.3(1.2)2.9(0.9)1.9(0.7)5.1(1.0)4.7(1.0)3.5(0.9)
Line 2 Stephenson3.6(1.0)3.4(1.0)2.7(1.0)2.4(1.0)4.2(0.9)4.3(1.0)3.6(1.0)
Line 3 Gaudreau3.5(1.0)2.9(0.9)2.7(1.0)2.3(1.0)4.2(1.0)4.0(1.0)3.3(1.0)
Line 4 Wright2.4(0.8)1.9(0.7)2.8(1.1)2.9(1.4)3.8(1.0)3.3(0.9)3.5(1.2)
Pair 1 Montour5.4(1.1)5.2(1.1)3.7(0.9)3.0(0.9)6.4(1.0)6.0(1.0)4.9(1.0)
Pair 2 Evans4.9(1.0)4.2(0.9)4.2(1.1)3.5(1.0)6.0(1.0)5.7(1.0)4.9(1.0)
Pair 3 Lindgren3.8(1.0)3.3(1.0)3.0(1.0)2.8(1.1)4.6(1.0)4.4(1.0)3.7(1.0)

Coaching fingerprints: Flames · Kraken

Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks

9:00 PM ET

The Canucks have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).

Golden Knights

  • Line 1Marner – Eichel – Karlssonvs VAN Ohgren line 4.7 min (1.13×) · vs VAN Buium pair 6.6 min (1.10×)
  • Line 2Barbashev – Stone – Howdenvs VAN Pettersson line 4.2 min (1.15×) · vs VAN Buium pair 6.0 min (1.07×)
  • Line 3OlofssonNew team · 2 GP with VGK – Hertl – Dowdvs VAN Ohgren line 2.8 min (0.91×) · vs VAN Buium pair 3.9 min (0.89×)
  • Line 4Bowman – Connelly – GatcombNew team · 2 GP with VGKvs VAN Cotter line 2.7 min (1.28×) · vs VAN Buium pair 3.3 min (0.92×)
  • Pair 1Theodore – Anderssonvs VAN Ohgren line 5.5 min (1.03×) · vs VAN Buium pair 7.8 min (1.03×)
  • Pair 2Hanifin – McNabbvs VAN Ohgren line 5.4 min (1.11×) · vs VAN Buium pair 6.7 min (0.97×)
  • Pair 3WotherspoonNew team · 2 GP with VGK – Lauzonvs VAN Cotter line 4.2 min (1.17×) · vs VAN Buium pair 5.8 min (0.95×)

Canucks

  • Line 1Ohgren – Boeser – Karlssonvs VGK Marner line 4.7 min (1.13×) · vs VGK Theodore pair 5.5 min (1.03×)
  • Line 2Pettersson – O'Connor – Rossivs VGK Marner line 4.5 min (1.17×) · vs VGK Theodore pair 5.2 min (1.05×)
  • Line 3CotterNew team · 3 GP with VAN – Sasson – Rätyvs VGK Marner line 3.0 min (0.86×) · vs VGK Wotherspoon pair 4.2 min (1.17×)
  • Line 4GallagherNew team · 3 GP with VAN – Bains – Lekkerimäkivs VGK Olofsson line 2.7 min (1.29×) · vs VGK Wotherspoon pair 3.9 min (1.31×)
  • Pair 1Buium – Hronekvs VGK Marner line 6.6 min (1.10×) · vs VGK Theodore pair 7.8 min (1.03×)
  • Pair 2OleksiakNew team · 3 GP with VAN – Willandervs VGK Marner line 6.0 min (1.13×) · vs VGK Theodore pair 7.2 min (1.06×)
  • Pair 3Pettersson – SchennNew team · 3 GP with VANvs VGK Olofsson line 3.4 min (1.32×) · vs VGK Wotherspoon pair 4.3 min (1.19×)
Full line-vs-line grid
VAN units (rows) against VGK units (columns): expected 5v5 minutes together, ratio to random mixing in brackets.
VANLine 1MarnerLine 2BarbashevLine 3OlofssonLine 4BowmanPair 1TheodorePair 2HanifinPair 3Wotherspoon
Line 1 Ohgren4.7(1.1)4.2(1.1)2.8(0.9)2.0(0.8)5.5(1.0)5.4(1.1)3.7(0.9)
Line 2 Pettersson4.5(1.2)4.2(1.1)2.4(0.8)1.7(0.7)5.2(1.1)4.7(1.1)3.4(0.8)
Line 3 Cotter3.0(0.9)2.8(0.9)2.7(1.1)2.7(1.3)4.1(0.9)3.7(0.9)4.2(1.2)
Line 4 Gallagher1.9(0.7)2.0(0.7)2.7(1.3)2.6(1.5)3.4(0.9)3.0(0.9)3.9(1.3)
Pair 1 Buium6.6(1.1)6.0(1.1)3.9(0.9)3.3(0.9)7.8(1.0)6.7(1.0)5.8(0.9)
Pair 2 Oleksiak6.0(1.1)5.6(1.1)3.3(0.8)2.8(0.9)7.2(1.1)6.2(1.0)4.7(0.8)
Pair 3 Pettersson2.7(0.8)2.9(0.9)3.4(1.3)2.5(1.2)4.0(0.9)4.1(1.0)4.3(1.2)

Coaching fingerprints: Golden Knights · Canucks

How the forecast works

  1. We start from tonight's projected lineups: the skaters each team dressed in its last game, with their recent 5-on-5 ice time.
  2. Random mixing is the baseline. If coaches ignored matchups, two players would share the ice in proportion to their ice times.
  3. Each coach's Last-Change Fingerprint, measured at home and on the road, then tilts that baseline. It shows how often his top line has seen the other team's top line, compared with random mixing.
  4. Each player's own history against the opponent's top, middle and bottom lines adjusts it further. Shutdown roles live at the player level. Earlier meetings between the same two teams count too.
  5. Finally, every skater's row is rescaled so that his minutes add up to his projected 5-on-5 time. Every second at 5-on-5 has exactly five opponents on the ice.

Data: NHL shift charts processed by our on-ice engine (who was on the ice against whom, every second, this season and last). Forecasts refresh through the day until puck drop. Full methodology and backtest.

FAQ

What does "line matchup" mean in hockey?

It is which of the other team's forward lines and defence pairs a player shares the ice with. The home coach changes last, so he can send his checking line or shutdown pair out against the visitors' top line. Road coaches can only react on the fly.

How do you know who will face whom tonight?

We don't know for certain; it's a forecast. It combines the projected lineups and ice times, each coach's matching habits at home and on the road, each player's own record against top and depth lines, and earlier meetings between the two teams. We score every forecast against the real shift data after the game and publish the accuracy.

How accurate is the matchup forecast?

Its strongest output is who draws tough or soft competition. On held-out games, the forecast shift in each skater's opposition quality correlated 0.41 (forwards) and 0.54 (defence) with what happened, and it was well calibrated. Exact minutes against each opponent are much harder to call: it beats random mixing there by only about 2%, because lineups, penalties and line changes on the fly dominate.

How should I use matchups in fantasy hockey?

Use them as a tiebreaker, not a rule. A scorer expected to see the other team's shutdown pair has a tougher night than his season average suggests, and a sheltered second-liner an easier one. But the shift is small (about half a point of opponents' xGF% at the extremes), and power-play time, shots and the opposing goalie matter more.

What is the Last-Change Fingerprint?

It's a coach's matching tendency, measured at home (where he has last change) and on the road. Each cell compares the time one of his lines spent against one of the opponent's lines with what random mixing would give. A value above 1.00× means he seeks that matchup; below 1.00× means he avoids it.

Does it cover the power play?

No. The forecast is 5-on-5 only, where line matching happens. Power-play units are on the line combinations pages.