Tampa Bay Lightning Line Matchups
2026-27 · 1-1-0 · 2 pts · 6th Atlantic
How the Lightning match lines at 5-on-5: who they send against the other team's top line, how hard they match at home, where they change last, versus on the road, and which players carry the toughest minutes. This is the Last-Change Fingerprint.
Next game, Oct 5
The Lightning have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).
Flyers
- Line 1Tippett – Zegras – Dvorakvs TBL Hagel line 4.9 min (1.24×) · vs TBL Moser pair 5.5 min (1.13×)
- Line 2Konecny – AcciariNew team · 3 GP with PHI – Couturiervs TBL Hagel line 3.7 min (1.02×) · vs TBL Moser pair 4.4 min (1.00×)
- Line 3Foerster – Martone – Grundstromvs TBL Cirelli line 3.3 min (1.01×) · vs TBL Moser pair 4.0 min (0.97×)
- Line 4Bump – Michkov – Catesvs TBL Cirelli line 2.5 min (0.89×) · vs TBL McDonagh pair 3.5 min (1.11×)
- Pair 1Sanheim – Drysdalevs TBL Hagel line 5.8 min (1.08×) · vs TBL Moser pair 6.7 min (1.02×)
- Pair 2York – Ristolainenvs TBL Hagel line 5.3 min (1.08×) · vs TBL Moser pair 6.0 min (1.00×)
- Pair 3Seeler – JiricekNew team · 2 GP with PHIvs TBL Cirelli line 3.2 min (0.91×) · vs TBL McDonagh pair 4.0 min (1.05×)
Lightning
- Line 1Hagel – Kucherov – Holmbergvs PHI Tippett line 4.9 min (1.24×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 5.8 min (1.08×)
- Line 2Cirelli – Goncalves – Guentzelvs PHI Tippett line 3.8 min (1.00×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 5.5 min (1.08×)
- Line 3Point – MikheyevNew team · 2 GP with TBL – Girgensonsvs PHI Konecny line 3.1 min (1.07×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 4.2 min (0.97×)
- Line 4VielNew team · 2 GP with TBL – Geekievs PHI Bump line 2.4 min (1.40×) · vs PHI Seeler pair 3.0 min (1.42×)
- Pair 1Moser – Cernakvs PHI Tippett line 5.5 min (1.13×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 6.7 min (1.02×)
- Pair 2McDonagh – D'Astousvs PHI Tippett line 4.3 min (1.04×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 5.4 min (0.96×)
- Pair 3Lilleberg – CarlsonNew team · 2 GP with TBL – Hedmanvs PHI Foerster line 3.5 min (1.11×) · vs PHI Sanheim pair 4.6 min (0.92×)
Full line-vs-line grid
| TBL | Line 1Tippett | Line 2Konecny | Line 3Foerster | Line 4Bump | Pair 1Sanheim | Pair 2York | Pair 3Seeler |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 Hagel | 4.9(1.2) | 3.7(1.0) | 3.0(0.9) | 2.4(0.8) | 5.8(1.1) | 5.3(1.1) | 2.9(0.8) |
| Line 2 Cirelli | 3.8(1.0) | 3.6(1.1) | 3.3(1.0) | 2.5(0.9) | 5.5(1.1) | 4.7(1.0) | 3.2(0.9) |
| Line 3 Point | 3.0(0.9) | 3.1(1.1) | 2.8(1.0) | 2.4(1.0) | 4.2(1.0) | 3.9(1.0) | 3.2(1.1) |
| Line 4 Viel | 1.7(0.8) | 1.6(0.8) | 2.1(1.1) | 2.4(1.4) | 2.6(0.8) | 2.6(0.9) | 3.0(1.4) |
| Pair 1 Moser | 5.5(1.1) | 4.4(1.0) | 4.0(1.0) | 3.4(0.9) | 6.7(1.0) | 6.0(1.0) | 4.0(0.9) |
| Pair 2 McDonagh | 4.3(1.0) | 3.4(0.9) | 3.5(1.0) | 3.5(1.1) | 5.4(1.0) | 5.1(1.0) | 4.0(1.1) |
| Pair 3 Lilleberg | 2.8(0.8) | 3.4(1.0) | 3.5(1.1) | 3.4(1.2) | 4.6(0.9) | 4.3(0.9) | 3.9(1.1) |
- With last change at home, the Lightning are a middle-of-the-pack line matcher (17th of 32 by matching intensity).
- At home their top line sees the other team's top line 1.12× as often as random mixing: power against power.
- The second line draws the opponent's top line most among the depth lines at home (1.11×).
From the last 30 home and 30 road games with shift data (this season and last), as of Oct 4, 2026. Ratios are shrunk toward 1.00 for small samples.
At home: with last change
| Lightning | Opp Line 1 | Opp Line 2 | Opp Line 3 | Opp Line 4 | Opp Pair 1 | Opp Pair 2 | Opp Pair 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 | 1.12 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 1.06 | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Line 2 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 0.94 | 0.83 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| Line 3 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 0.97 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Line 4 | 0.72 | 0.87 | 1.08 | 1.42 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 1.22 |
| Pair 1 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Pair 2 | 1.03 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Pair 3 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.07 |
On the road
| Lightning | Opp Line 1 | Opp Line 2 | Opp Line 3 | Opp Line 4 | Opp Pair 1 | Opp Pair 2 | Opp Pair 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 | 1.10 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Line 2 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 0.95 |
| Line 3 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 1.11 |
| Line 4 | 0.86 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 1.40 | 0.91 | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| Pair 1 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.96 |
| Pair 2 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 0.98 | 0.97 |
| Pair 3 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.10 |
Player competition
Each skater's 5v5 time against each of the opponent's units, as a ratio to random mixing, over his recent games (both venues). Above 1.00 against L1 and P1: he draws top competition.
| Player | Role | GP | Opp L1 | Opp L2 | Opp L3 | Opp L4 | Opp P1 | Opp P2 | Opp P3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | Line 1 · 13.6 min | 40 | 1.16 | 1.06 | 0.93 | 0.74 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 0.71 |
| Nikita Kucherov | Line 1 · 13.4 min | 40 | 1.05 | 1.17 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 0.60 |
| Pontus Holmberg | Line 1 · 13.1 min | 40 | 1.45 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Anthony Cirelli | Line 2 · 12.9 min | 40 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 1.11 | 1.06 | 0.76 |
| Gage Goncalves | Line 2 · 12.5 min | 40 | 0.83 | 1.14 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 1.04 | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| Jake Guentzel | Line 2 · 12.4 min | 40 | 0.94 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.78 |
| Brayden Point | Line 3 · 11.7 min | 40 | 0.79 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 0.97 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 0.78 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | Line 3 · 11.1 min | 2 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | Line 3 · 9.7 min | 40 | 1.19 | 1.01 | 0.91 | 0.76 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 1.20 |
| Jeffrey Viel | Line 4 · 7.9 min | 2 | 0.98 | 0.75 | 0.99 | 1.35 | 0.90 | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Conor Geekie | Line 4 · 7.4 min | 18 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 1.54 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 1.23 |
| J.J. Moser | Pair 1 · 17.6 min | 40 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 0.78 |
| Erik Cernak | Pair 1 · 15.0 min | 40 | 1.21 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1.06 |
| Ryan McDonagh | Pair 2 · 14.4 min | 40 | 1.25 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | Pair 2 · 13.5 min | 40 | 0.85 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 1.25 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| Emil Lilleberg | Pair 3 · 12.7 min | 40 | 0.87 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.15 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| John Carlson | Pair 3 · 12.6 min | 2 | 0.84 | 0.97 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 0.95 | 1.03 | 1.04 |
| Victor Hedman | Pair 3 · 11.9 min | 35 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.05 |
Every game tonight
These habits drive the Matchup Forecast. It projects which line and pair each player faces tonight, for every game. Also see the Lightning line combinations and the methodology.
FAQ
Who do the Lightning match against the other team's top line?
At home, with last change, the Lightning' pair 1 (D) sees top lines 1.04× as often as random mixing, and among depth forwards line 2 gets the most top-line minutes (1.11×). The full grid and each player's numbers are on this page.
What is a Last-Change Fingerprint?
It's a coach's line-matching habit, measured from shift charts. Each cell compares the 5-on-5 time one of his units spent against one of the opponent's units with what it would have been if he ignored matchups. 1.00× is random mixing, above it is a matchup he seeks, below it one he avoids. It's measured separately at home, where the home coach changes last, and on the road.
How do the Lightning' matchups affect fantasy hockey?
A forward who regularly draws the other team's top line and top pair faces tougher competition than his raw numbers suggest. A sheltered line gets softer minutes. Tonight's Matchup Forecast applies these habits to each game's projected lineups.